ORCL Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 40 trades in period
-5.67%
Year to Date Return
$15,378.80
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$16,303.88
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.7/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
31.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 31.8
30-Day Momentum
31
+3.4%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.4
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,551
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$16,303.88
Current Value
$15,378.80
Period P&L
$-925.11
Max Drawdown
-37.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
21 /
19
Best Trade
+9.80%
Worst Trade
-3.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,190,718.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-925.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$-925.11
Gross Return
-5.67%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.67%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,303.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $195.06 | 83 | $16,190.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.32 | 83 | $15,630.56 | $15,744.15 |
$-559.77 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $194.84 | 80 | $15,587.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $198.77 | 80 | $15,901.60 | $16,058.56 |
+$314.41 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $204.10 | 78 | $15,919.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $197.09 | 78 | $15,373.37 | $15,512.13 |
$-546.43 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $193.16 | 80 | $15,452.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $186.86 | 80 | $14,948.60 | $15,007.93 |
$-504.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $183.50 | 81 | $14,863.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.73 | 81 | $14,315.13 | $14,459.56 |
$-548.37 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $177.48 | 81 | $14,375.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.01 | 81 | $14,823.81 | $14,907.49 |
+$447.93 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $175.17 | 85 | $14,889.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.45 | 85 | $15,253.25 | $15,271.29 |
+$363.80 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $164.80 | 92 | $15,161.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $168.84 | 92 | $15,533.28 | $15,642.97 |
+$371.68 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $168.01 | 93 | $15,624.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:25pm ET | $162.63 | 93 | $15,124.59 | $15,142.63 |
$-500.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $147.98 | 102 | $15,093.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $151.11 | 102 | $15,413.22 | $15,462.40 |
+$319.77 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $140.18 | 110 | $15,419.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $135.73 | 110 | $14,930.30 | $14,972.97 |
$-489.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $155.46 | 96 | $14,923.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $158.66 | 96 | $15,231.36 | $15,280.65 |
+$307.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $162.80 | 93 | $15,140.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $162.77 | 93 | $15,137.61 | $15,277.86 |
$-2.79 (-0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $157.95 | 96 | $15,163.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:55pm ET | $153.08 | 96 | $14,695.92 | $14,810.58 |
$-467.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $156.96 | 94 | $14,754.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $151.83 | 94 | $14,272.02 | $14,328.35 |
$-482.23 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $142.49 | 100 | $14,248.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $145.45 | 100 | $14,545.00 | $14,624.85 |
+$296.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $150.55 | 97 | $14,603.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $145.87 | 97 | $14,148.91 | $14,170.09 |
$-454.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $145.04 | 97 | $14,069.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $148.16 | 97 | $14,371.52 | $14,472.25 |
+$302.16 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $147.29 | 98 | $14,434.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $150.27 | 98 | $14,726.46 | $14,763.80 |
+$291.55 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $153.06 | 96 | $14,693.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $156.59 | 96 | $15,032.16 | $15,102.10 |
+$338.30 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $157.45 | 95 | $14,957.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $151.99 | 95 | $14,438.58 | $14,582.93 |
$-519.17 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $151.19 | 96 | $14,514.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.00 | 96 | $15,936.00 | $16,004.69 |
+$1,421.76 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $162.90 | 98 | $15,964.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $157.96 | 98 | $15,480.08 | $15,520.08 |
$-484.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $155.78 | 99 | $15,422.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $150.46 | 99 | $14,895.54 | $14,993.40 |
$-526.68 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $151.00 | 99 | $14,949.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $154.23 | 99 | $15,268.28 | $15,312.68 |
+$319.28 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $148.09 | 103 | $15,252.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.41 | 103 | $14,771.74 | $14,831.67 |
$-481.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $139.86 | 106 | $14,825.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $142.68 | 106 | $15,124.08 | $15,130.59 |
+$298.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET | $146.40 | 103 | $15,079.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $141.09 | 103 | $14,532.27 | $14,583.66 |
$-546.93 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $145.09 | 100 | $14,508.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $140.23 | 100 | $14,023.00 | $14,098.16 |
$-485.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $143.93 | 97 | $13,961.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $138.91 | 97 | $13,474.75 | $13,611.71 |
$-486.45 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $135.49 | 100 | $13,549.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $138.37 | 100 | $13,836.99 | $13,899.70 |
+$287.99 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $149.31 | 93 | $13,885.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $152.45 | 93 | $14,177.91 | $14,191.79 |
+$292.09 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $162.79 | 87 | $14,163.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.33 | 87 | $14,557.71 | $14,586.34 |
+$394.55 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.26 | 83 | $14,546.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.97 | 83 | $15,186.39 | $15,226.15 |
+$639.81 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $176.13 | 86 | $15,146.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $180.09 | 86 | $15,487.74 | $15,567.14 |
+$340.99 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $187.27 | 83 | $15,543.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.80 | 83 | $14,923.40 | $14,947.13 |
$-620.01 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $174.91 | 85 | $14,867.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.22 | 85 | $14,383.70 | $14,463.48 |
$-483.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $165.65 | 87 | $14,411.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.17 | 87 | $14,717.79 | $14,769.72 |
+$306.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $180.90 | 81 | $14,653.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $184.66 | 81 | $14,957.46 | $15,073.88 |
+$304.16 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $194.93 | 77 | $15,009.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $198.89 | 77 | $15,314.53 | $15,378.80 |
+$304.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,378.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,378.80
Total Return:
+53.79%