Compendium › Rebel Contraire › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 24 trades in period

-0.66%
Year to Date Return
$9,074.88
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$9,135.11
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 03:38:01

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 10.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 10.3

30-Day Momentum

27
+3.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
4.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.3 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,620
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
122 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,135.11
Current Value
$9,074.88
Period P&L
$-60.24
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
11 / 13
Best Trade
+2.84%
Worst Trade
-1.81%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$430,413.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-60.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$-60.24
Gross Return
-0.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 122 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,135.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET $87.72 104 $9,122.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $87.26 104 $9,074.52 $9,135.64 $-48.14
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $87.16 104 $9,064.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $87.44 104 $9,093.76 $9,164.76 +$29.12
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET $87.66 104 $9,116.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $86.65 104 $9,011.60 $9,059.72 $-105.04
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET $86.63 104 $9,009.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET $88.37 104 $9,189.96 $9,240.68 +$180.96
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET $88.04 104 $9,155.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $87.04 104 $9,052.16 $9,137.20 $-103.48
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET $86.47 105 $9,079.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $87.14 105 $9,149.70 $9,207.55 +$70.35
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $88.42 104 $9,195.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $88.43 104 $9,197.24 $9,209.36 +$1.81
(+0.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
36m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $89.88 102 $9,167.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $89.56 102 $9,134.61 $9,176.21 $-33.15
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:25am ET $89.85 102 $9,164.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $89.98 102 $9,177.96 $9,189.47 +$13.26
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET $89.26 102 $9,104.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $88.28 102 $9,004.56 $9,089.81 $-99.66
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET $88.79 102 $9,056.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $87.18 102 $8,892.36 $8,926.10 $-163.71
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET $87.40 102 $8,914.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.18 102 $8,789.85 $8,801.14 $-124.96
(-1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $85.69 102 $8,740.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $86.62 102 $8,835.24 $8,895.49 +$94.35
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET $86.76 102 $8,850.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $86.51 102 $8,824.02 $8,869.48 $-26.01
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $86.22 102 $8,794.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $86.43 102 $8,815.86 $8,890.39 +$20.91
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $86.67 102 $8,839.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $87.10 102 $8,884.20 $8,934.76 +$44.37
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET $86.81 102 $8,854.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.49 102 $8,821.47 $8,902.12 $-32.64
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $86.11 103 $8,869.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.35 103 $8,791.05 $8,823.84 $-78.28
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
19 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:05am ET $85.23 103 $8,778.69 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $85.89 103 $8,846.67 $8,891.82 +$67.98
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
20 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $85.13 104 $8,853.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $83.71 104 $8,706.36 $8,744.66 $-147.16
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
21 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $82.97 105 $8,711.85 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $85.33 105 $8,959.65 $8,992.46 +$247.80
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
22 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:55pm ET $85.29 105 $8,955.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:55pm ET $85.24 105 $8,950.20 $8,986.68 $-5.78
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 11:05am ET $85.31 105 $8,957.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 11:05am ET $85.00 105 $8,924.48 $8,954.13 $-32.55
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:35am ET $84.80 105 $8,904.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $85.95 105 $9,024.75 $9,074.88 +$120.75
(+1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,074.88
Net Profit/Loss: $-925.12
Total Return: -9.25%
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