TQQQ Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-39.98%
Year to Date Return
$5,855.28
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$9,755.86
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 11.3
30-Day Momentum
35
+5.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.9
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,594
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,755.86
Current Value
$5,855.28
Period P&L
$-3,900.55
Max Drawdown
-41.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.41
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
16 /
25
Best Trade
+3.33%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
-1.20%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$602,830.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,900.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,900.55
Gross Return
-39.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-39.98%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,755.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $53.85 | 181 | $9,746.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $54.94 | 181 | $9,943.24 | $9,952.21 |
+$196.39 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $55.93 | 177 | $9,899.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.19 | 177 | $9,591.63 | $9,644.23 |
$-307.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $54.77 | 176 | $9,639.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $55.87 | 176 | $9,833.37 | $9,838.08 |
+$193.85 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:35pm ET | $56.10 | 175 | $9,817.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.28 | 175 | $9,498.13 | $9,518.70 |
$-319.38 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $55.04 | 172 | $9,466.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.05 | 172 | $8,952.27 | $9,004.10 |
$-514.61 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.62 | 171 | $8,998.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $50.83 | 171 | $8,691.30 | $8,697.37 |
$-306.72 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $54.12 | 160 | $8,658.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $55.25 | 160 | $8,839.20 | $8,878.17 |
+$180.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $56.57 | 156 | $8,824.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $57.93 | 156 | $9,037.08 | $9,090.35 |
+$212.18 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.76 | 163 | $9,088.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $53.85 | 163 | $8,777.55 | $8,779.02 |
$-311.33 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $55.05 | 159 | $8,752.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $53.22 | 159 | $8,461.98 | $8,488.85 |
$-290.17 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $50.17 | 169 | $8,479.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET | $48.63 | 169 | $8,218.47 | $8,227.74 |
$-261.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $48.47 | 169 | $8,192.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $49.48 | 169 | $8,362.09 | $8,397.55 |
+$169.81 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $52.15 | 161 | $8,396.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $51.90 | 161 | $8,355.10 | $8,356.50 |
$-41.06 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
21.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $47.56 | 175 | $8,322.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $48.63 | 175 | $8,509.99 | $8,543.73 |
+$187.23 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET | $49.79 | 171 | $8,514.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $48.19 | 171 | $8,239.89 | $8,269.02 |
$-274.71 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $49.42 | 167 | $8,253.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.88 | 167 | $7,995.13 | $8,011.01 |
$-258.01 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $49.89 | 160 | $7,982.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.99 | 160 | $8,159.20 | $8,187.33 |
+$176.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $50.69 | 161 | $8,161.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.10 | 161 | $7,905.90 | $7,931.55 |
$-255.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.18 | 161 | $7,917.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.47 | 161 | $7,642.83 | $7,656.40 |
$-275.15 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.68 | 164 | $7,655.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:50am ET | $47.66 | 164 | $7,815.75 | $7,816.63 |
+$160.23 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $50.35 | 155 | $7,805.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $48.72 | 155 | $7,552.37 | $7,563.98 |
$-252.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $48.52 | 155 | $7,520.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.46 | 155 | $7,200.53 | $7,244.51 |
$-319.47 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $50.13 | 144 | $7,219.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.37 | 144 | $6,965.28 | $6,990.35 |
$-254.16 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $47.59 | 146 | $6,948.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $46.03 | 146 | $6,719.65 | $6,761.86 |
$-228.49 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $47.44 | 142 | $6,736.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.44 | 142 | $6,878.48 | $6,903.86 |
+$142.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $47.15 | 146 | $6,883.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.47 | 146 | $6,492.62 | $6,512.59 |
$-391.27 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $44.10 | 147 | $6,481.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $42.75 | 147 | $6,284.25 | $6,314.88 |
$-197.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $45.04 | 140 | $6,305.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.57 | 140 | $6,099.80 | $6,109.08 |
$-205.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $44.54 | 137 | $6,101.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.20 | 137 | $5,918.40 | $5,925.49 |
$-183.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $39.65 | 149 | $5,908.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $38.44 | 149 | $5,726.82 | $5,744.01 |
$-181.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $43.39 | 132 | $5,727.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 132 | $5,414.64 | $5,430.69 |
$-313.32 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $43.82 | 123 | $5,389.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $42.33 | 123 | $5,206.58 | $5,247.41 |
$-183.28 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:35am ET | $47.74 | 109 | $5,204.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $48.85 | 109 | $5,324.94 | $5,368.15 |
+$120.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $49.08 | 109 | $5,350.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $50.14 | 109 | $5,465.26 | $5,483.15 |
+$115.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $54.58 | 100 | $5,458.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.11 | 100 | $5,611.00 | $5,636.01 |
+$152.86 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $58.02 | 97 | $5,627.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $59.28 | 97 | $5,749.68 | $5,757.75 |
+$121.74 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $60.42 | 95 | $5,739.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $58.58 | 95 | $5,565.57 | $5,583.90 |
$-173.85 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $62.45 | 89 | $5,558.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $60.53 | 89 | $5,387.18 | $5,412.90 |
$-171.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $60.71 | 89 | $5,403.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.73 | 89 | $5,582.97 | $5,592.69 |
+$179.79 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:35am ET | $65.11 | 85 | $5,533.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $66.66 | 85 | $5,666.10 | $5,724.87 |
+$132.18 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $70.28 | 81 | $5,692.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.89 | 81 | $5,822.69 | $5,855.28 |
+$130.41 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,855.28
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,144.72
Total Return:
-41.45%