Compendium › Rebel Contraire › VTI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VTI
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 26 trades in period

+6.52%
Year to Date Return
$15,179.39
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$14,250.15
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:26:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

51
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.3/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 52.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 51.4

30-Day Momentum

21
+2.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 32.5 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,288
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
122 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$14,250.15
Current Value
$15,179.39
Period P&L
$929.26
Max Drawdown
-10.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
16 / 10
Best Trade
+3.10%
Worst Trade
-3.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
4.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$732,002.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$929.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$929.26
Gross Return
+6.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 122 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,250.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET $338.11 42 $14,200.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $338.21 42 $14,204.82 $14,353.88 +$4.41
(+0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET $339.74 42 $14,269.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $341.22 42 $14,331.24 $14,416.04 +$62.16
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET $342.90 42 $14,401.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $337.46 42 $14,173.32 $14,187.56 $-228.48
(-1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET $338.48 41 $13,877.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET $342.06 41 $14,024.46 $14,334.34 +$146.78
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET $343.52 41 $14,084.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $340.36 41 $13,954.96 $14,204.80 $-129.54
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $341.52 41 $14,002.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $340.48 41 $13,959.68 $14,161.95 $-42.84
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET $342.57 41 $14,045.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $343.26 41 $14,073.65 $14,190.05 +$28.10
(+0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET $335.88 42 $14,106.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $339.73 42 $14,268.66 $14,351.75 +$161.70
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET $336.92 42 $14,150.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $335.24 42 $14,080.08 $14,281.19 $-70.56
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET $332.69 42 $13,972.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $328.35 42 $13,790.75 $14,098.96 $-182.23
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET $333.73 42 $14,016.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $329.15 42 $13,824.30 $13,906.60 $-192.36
(-1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET $332.02 41 $13,612.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET $321.96 41 $13,200.36 $13,494.14 $-412.46
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET $325.35 41 $13,339.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $315.31 41 $12,927.71 $13,082.57 $-411.57
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET $313.19 41 $12,840.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:05pm ET $319.58 41 $13,102.98 $13,344.77 +$262.20
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET $324.77 41 $13,315.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $324.59 41 $13,308.19 $13,337.39 $-7.38
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:05pm ET $324.20 41 $13,292.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $334.23 41 $13,703.52 $13,748.92 +$411.53
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $333.01 41 $13,653.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $339.80 41 $13,932.00 $14,027.51 +$278.59
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $343.74 40 $13,749.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET $350.86 40 $14,034.20 $14,311.91 +$284.40
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET $349.96 40 $13,998.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $351.85 40 $14,074.00 $14,387.35 +$75.44
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $350.78 41 $14,381.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $355.02 41 $14,555.62 $14,560.99 +$173.64
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
21 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:40am ET $356.31 40 $14,252.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $362.69 40 $14,507.60 $14,816.19 +$255.20
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
22 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:55am ET $361.57 40 $14,462.79 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $363.11 40 $14,524.40 $14,877.80 +$61.61
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
23 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:05am ET $360.29 41 $14,771.89 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:40am ET $367.69 41 $15,075.29 $15,181.20 +$303.40
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
24 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 10:55am ET $369.97 41 $15,168.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $372.06 41 $15,254.36 $15,266.79 +$85.59
(+0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $373.04 40 $14,921.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $366.64 40 $14,665.40 $15,010.59 $-256.20
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET $367.39 40 $14,695.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $371.61 40 $14,864.40 $15,179.39 +$168.80
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,179.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,179.39
Total Return: +51.79%
Back to Rebel Contraire