Compendium › Rebel Contraire › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

+42.09%
Year to Date Return
$18,974.25
Current Value
86%
Win Rate
$13,353.66
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 12:23:19

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
24.3/35
Total Return
16.3/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
5.2/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 61.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 60.6

30-Day Momentum

13
-1.0%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.6 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-48 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,959
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,353.66
Current Value
$18,974.25
Period P&L
$5,620.65
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
24 / 4
Best Trade
+4.96%
Worst Trade
-3.72%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$971,565.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,620.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,620.65
Gross Return
+42.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+42.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,353.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 10:20am ET $44.86 298 $13,368.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.09 298 $14,031.33 $14,046.46 +$662.75
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET $46.35 303 $14,042.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $46.40 303 $14,059.20 $14,063.12 +$16.66
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $47.06 298 $14,022.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET $48.00 298 $14,304.00 $14,344.73 +$281.61
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET $47.67 300 $14,299.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $47.85 300 $14,355.00 $14,400.20 +$55.47
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET $48.74 295 $14,376.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $49.74 295 $14,673.30 $14,696.68 +$296.48
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:55am ET $49.12 299 $14,686.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $51.42 299 $15,373.09 $15,382.88 +$686.21
(+4.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET $50.31 305 $15,344.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $51.37 305 $15,667.85 $15,706.18 +$323.30
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $52.60 298 $15,675.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $53.56 298 $15,959.39 $15,990.17 +$283.99
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET $53.55 298 $15,957.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET $54.69 298 $16,299.11 $16,331.38 +$341.21
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $54.13 301 $16,293.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $55.26 301 $16,633.26 $16,671.51 +$340.13
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $55.11 302 $16,643.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $55.34 302 $16,712.68 $16,740.97 +$69.46
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:25pm ET $55.31 302 $16,703.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $57.61 302 $17,398.22 $17,435.57 +$694.60
(+4.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET $56.59 308 $17,431.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $56.68 308 $17,457.44 $17,461.90 +$26.33
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:55am ET $55.67 313 $17,425.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $56.80 313 $17,778.40 $17,815.12 +$353.22
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $57.82 308 $17,808.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:45am ET $58.98 308 $18,165.84 $18,172.40 +$357.28
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $58.69 309 $18,136.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $59.97 309 $18,529.71 $18,565.36 +$392.96
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 1:30pm ET $59.53 311 $18,513.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET $60.73 311 $18,887.03 $18,938.56 +$373.20
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:15am ET $60.74 311 $18,890.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $61.97 311 $19,273.79 $19,322.21 +$383.65
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET $63.08 306 $19,302.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:10pm ET $60.83 306 $18,613.98 $18,633.71 $-688.50
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET $58.47 318 $18,591.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $60.17 318 $19,132.47 $19,174.28 +$540.57
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $59.22 323 $19,128.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $60.46 323 $19,526.97 $19,572.38 +$398.10
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:20am ET $57.31 341 $19,542.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $58.67 341 $20,006.47 $20,036.14 +$463.76
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET $56.90 352 $20,027.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 10:10am ET $55.63 352 $19,583.52 $19,592.62 $-443.52
(-2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:15am ET $56.49 346 $19,547.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $54.39 346 $18,819.63 $18,864.98 $-727.64
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET $55.53 339 $18,826.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET $56.67 339 $19,211.13 $19,249.74 +$384.76
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET $56.67 339 $19,211.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $57.49 339 $19,490.80 $19,529.42 +$279.68
(+1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $58.81 332 $19,526.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:45pm ET $59.26 332 $19,672.66 $19,675.50 +$146.08
(+0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
28 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 1:20pm ET $59.58 330 $19,663.05 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 330 $18,961.80 $18,974.25 $-701.25
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,974.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,974.25
Total Return: +89.74%
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