Back to Compendium
Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 Last Year Performance: Showing Rebel Contraire's performance over the last year across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,258
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,012 (+$246)
+2.24%
Last Year ROI
57.5%
Win Rate
12,313
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+3.0%
1 Month
-3.6%
3 Months
-4.3%
6 Months
-2.7%
YTD
+2.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Year)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Last Year)

Stock Volume
$104,973,490
8,891 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$12,320,706
3,422 trades
Crypto Fees
$30,802
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Year: May 7, 2025 May 7, 2026 (365 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1Y Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 INTC 33 88🔥 +144.61% $6,450 $15,776 121 66% - +$9,327 -45.8% 1.7d -
2 MRNA 42 16🧊 +104.90% $10,223 $20,946 130 65% - +$10,723 -42.5% 1.3d -
3 MU 40 52 +96.52% $9,748 $19,156 118 64% - +$9,408 -32.2% 1.8d -
4 GOOGL 58 77 +95.97% $12,695 $24,879 80 68% - +$12,184 -25.1% 3.0d -
5 AMD 23 95🔥 +95.37% $6,034 $11,789 115 63% - +$5,755 -52.6% 1.8d -
6 NVDA 45 70🔥 +78.20% $12,627 $22,501 93 66% - +$9,874 -35.3% 1.8d -
7 OXY 35 19 +73.85% $8,653 $15,043 90 67% - +$6,390 -31.5% 3.1d -
8 USO 33 42 +68.90% $8,257 $13,947 85 68% - +$5,689 -29.6% 3.3d -
9 XLE 61 13🧊 +64.57% $11,530 $18,974 69 67% - +$7,445 -12.9% 4.0d -
10 SNOW 31 14 +58.20% $10,014 $15,842 109 63% - +$5,828 -41.0% 2.0d -
11 VXX 10 50🔥 +53.12% $5,307 $8,126 114 61% - +$2,819 -57.1% 1.8d -
12 ORCL 32 31 +48.24% $10,374 $15,379 105 58% - +$5,005 -37.5% 2.4d -
13 CVX 69 13🧊 +46.21% $14,170 $20,718 68 68% - +$6,548 -12.9% 3.9d -
14 CSCO 70 51 +44.10% $13,379 $19,280 70 60% - +$5,900 -9.7% 4.0d -
15 GLD 70 45🧊 +43.03% $14,150 $20,239 70 64% - +$6,089 -11.3% 4.4d -
16 NET 36 54 +39.08% $11,104 $15,444 117 64% - +$4,340 -29.4% 1.9d -
17 ARM 37 68🔥 +38.67% $11,310 $15,684 118 63% - +$4,374 -36.8% 1.4d -
18 XOM 48 36 +37.95% $11,866 $16,369 76 66% - +$4,503 -13.9% 3.6d -
19 JNJ 43 3🧊 +36.97% $10,109 $13,847 64 66% - +$3,737 -9.8% 4.5d -
20 AAPL 37 53 +34.24% $10,791 $14,486 68 65% - +$3,695 -20.3% 3.7d -
21 XLK 26 76🔥 +31.02% $9,101 $11,924 69 65% - +$2,823 -30.8% 3.7d -
22 BAC 39 67🔥 +28.40% $11,832 $15,193 77 64% - +$3,360 -19.8% 3.5d -
23 TSLA 28 80🔥 +28.08% $10,142 $12,990 108 61% - +$2,848 -37.6% 1.5d -
24 AXP 57 60 +27.89% $15,020 $19,209 77 61% - +$4,189 -13.8% 3.2d -
25 GILD 39 6🧊 +25.11% $11,780 $14,737 73 60% - +$2,958 -16.0% 3.6d -
26 AVGO 44 49 +24.92% $14,514 $18,131 100 59% - +$3,617 -21.1% 1.9d -
27 SPY 53 51 +24.16% $12,003 $14,903 58 64% - +$2,900 -9.7% 4.8d -
28 VOO 55 52 +23.99% $12,369 $15,337 58 60% - +$2,967 -9.6% 4.9d -
29 IBM 50 46 +23.78% $13,105 $16,222 80 61% - +$3,116 -11.2% 3.4d -
30 JPM 36 44 +21.00% $11,825 $14,308 72 64% - +$2,483 -21.7% 3.6d -
31 VTI 49 50 +20.09% $12,125 $14,561 58 64% - +$2,436 -10.5% 4.8d -
32 AMZN 30 76🔥 +18.33% $11,004 $13,021 84 61% - +$2,017 -27.2% 2.9d -
33 DIA 39 45 +17.65% $11,570 $13,613 56 61% - +$2,042 -13.6% 5.1d -
34 SMCI 12 67🔥 +17.48% $7,661 $9,000 132 60% - +$1,339 -63.9% 22.3h -
35 AMGN 24 25 +17.44% $9,638 $11,319 73 55% - +$1,681 -20.8% 3.6d -
36 COP 27 48🔥 +17.24% $10,202 $11,960 83 59% - +$1,759 -20.4% 3.2d -
37 SOXL 43 35 +15.59% $17,772 $20,543 138 59% - +$2,771 -33.0% 20.2h -
38 PANW 42 32 +14.17% $14,102 $16,100 93 65% - +$1,998 -18.6% 2.6d -
39 PLTR 45 51 +13.96% $17,481 $19,921 118 60% - +$2,440 -26.0% 1.3d -
40 C 32 64🔥 +13.46% $11,567 $13,124 83 61% - +$1,557 -21.2% 3.0d -
41 PEP 20 20 +12.97% $9,430 $10,653 65 55% - +$1,223 -16.0% 4.4d -
42 KO 33 43 +12.66% $11,645 $13,119 58 60% - +$1,474 -18.7% 4.6d -
43 GS 58 13🧊 +10.73% $17,589 $19,477 79 56% - +$1,887 -13.2% 3.2d -
44 GME 26 44 +10.63% $11,032 $12,204 93 61% - +$1,173 -32.4% 1.4d -
45 WMT 54 14🧊 +9.82% $16,252 $17,848 71 62% - +$1,596 -14.2% 4.1d -
46 IWM 39 53 +8.97% $12,843 $13,995 66 52% - +$1,152 -11.9% 3.8d -
47 QQQ 21 66🔥 +8.77% $9,814 $10,675 60 58% - +$861 -24.0% 4.3d -
48 SQQQ 9 9 +8.74% $5,762 $6,266 118 58% - +$504 -53.7% 1.5d -
49 BIIB 10 40🔥 +8.52% $7,773 $8,436 83 55% - +$662 -32.7% 3.0d -
50 NFLX 46 13🧊 +7.80% $16,452 $17,736 79 63% - +$1,283 -19.6% 3.1d -
51 PG 20 40 +7.73% $9,919 $10,686 64 52% - +$767 -19.3% 4.7d -
52 SLB 15 71🔥 +7.54% $9,507 $10,224 89 56% - +$717 -24.3% 2.9d -
53 XLF 35 17 +5.92% $12,670 $13,420 58 53% - +$750 -17.8% 4.8d -
54 SLV 32 9🧊 +4.80% $12,570 $13,174 99 57% - +$603 -18.7% 2.8d -
55 MS 42 71🔥 +4.19% $15,740 $16,400 73 59% - +$660 -18.0% 3.4d -
56 V 36 49 +3.97% $12,749 $13,255 67 51% - +$506 -11.9% 4.2d -
57 MSFT 29 59🔥 +3.57% $11,980 $12,408 68 60% - +$428 -19.1% 3.9d -
58 MA 37 10🧊 +2.68% $13,241 $13,596 69 57% - +$355 -12.2% 4.1d -
59 WFC 35 6🧊 +1.99% $13,173 $13,435 78 60% - +$262 -17.9% 3.2d -
60 SCHW 24 5 +1.86% $11,297 $11,507 68 59% - +$210 -16.1% 3.8d -
61 TMO 10 5 +1.22% $8,741 $8,847 81 56% - +$107 -23.9% 3.6d -
62 UVXY 10 47🔥 +1.01% $9,208 $9,301 134 56% - +$93 -48.5% 22.7h -
63 PFE 9 2 +0.32% $8,508 $8,535 70 60% - +$27 -30.4% 3.8d -
64 MRK 12 5 +0.08% $9,064 $9,072 82 62% - +$7 -29.6% 3.5d -
65 BLK 32 27 -0.90% $13,219 $13,100 76 49% - -$119 -17.7% 3.6d -
66 ABBV 13 3 -2.68% $10,353 $10,075 72 54% - -$277 -25.0% 3.7d -
67 VRTX 21 6 -3.80% $11,144 $10,721 74 55% - -$423 -21.3% 3.5d -
68 META 33 26 -3.89% $15,709 $15,098 78 56% - -$611 -36.9% 2.8d -
69 MCD 20 1 -4.06% $11,209 $10,754 59 46% - -$455 -15.2% 4.4d -
70 VZ 22 6 -4.79% $11,397 $10,851 64 55% - -$546 -15.3% 4.2d -
71 RIVN 10 16 -5.16% $5,113 $4,849 132 58% - -$264 -60.0% 1.1d -
72 REGN 11 10 -7.47% $8,748 $8,095 84 60% - -$654 -42.3% 3.1d -
73 RIOT 11 43🔥 -7.73% $6,009 $5,544 157 60% - -$464 -55.6% 17.3h -
74 TLT 10 3 -8.57% $9,651 $8,824 52 44% - -$827 -15.8% 5.2d -
75 COST 32 12 -8.95% $14,144 $12,878 63 48% - -$1,266 -17.4% 4.1d -
76 ARKK 11 12 -8.97% $8,804 $8,014 90 60% - -$790 -23.5% 2.4d -
77 BRK-B 43 5🧊 -9.88% $15,919 $14,347 61 44% - -$1,573 -10.0% 4.4d -
78 BMY 10 2 -10.06% $10,267 $9,234 78 56% - -$1,033 -39.5% 3.0d -
79 SPXU 19 9 -10.46% $11,764 $10,533 67 54% - -$1,230 -29.5% 2.3d -
80 LLY 23 7 -12.45% $13,177 $11,536 89 51% - -$1,640 -33.4% 2.6d -
81 HOOD 11 40🔥 -12.99% $11,100 $9,658 127 57% - -$1,442 -32.1% 1.3d -
82 UNH 10 64🔥 -12.99% $8,626 $7,506 82 52% - -$1,121 -41.5% 3.0d -
83 MDT 7 5 -13.09% $10,471 $9,101 66 47% - -$1,371 -15.1% 4.3d -
84 PM 34 56🔥 -13.66% $15,852 $13,686 75 56% - -$2,165 -19.7% 3.9d -
85 ADBE 9 52🔥 -17.42% $8,097 $6,686 79 52% - -$1,410 -40.9% 3.1d -
86 HD 19 6 -17.89% $13,021 $10,691 71 45% - -$2,329 -18.6% 3.9d -
87 ACN 8 37🔥 -17.91% $8,290 $6,805 80 53% - -$1,485 -41.3% 3.4d -
88 AMC 9 15 -18.06% $5,350 $4,384 104 55% - -$966 -57.1% 1.4d -
89 NIO 9 35🔥 -18.67% $8,341 $6,783 118 54% - -$1,557 -39.7% 1.4d -
90 DIS 8 2 -21.45% $11,193 $8,792 68 46% - -$2,401 -25.4% 3.7d -
91 CRM 10 15 -25.00% $8,475 $6,356 84 56% - -$2,119 -46.3% 3.1d -
92 ISRG 17 5 -25.96% $13,903 $10,294 76 43% - -$3,609 -39.2% 3.1d -
93 DKNG 12 59🔥 -26.28% $11,652 $8,590 108 54% - -$3,062 -46.7% 1.8d -
94 CRWD 13 27 -30.62% $13,925 $9,661 100 55% - -$4,264 -37.8% 1.8d -
95 PYPL 11 67🔥 -32.30% $12,581 $8,517 83 49% - -$4,064 -52.5% 2.7d -
96 TQQQ 11 35🔥 -32.67% $8,696 $5,855 107 52% - -$2,841 -41.0% 1.5d -
97 RBLX 31 13 -33.03% $20,502 $13,730 116 56% - -$6,772 -34.9% 1.9d -
98 SHIBUSD -33.61% $10,098 $6,704 87 57% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
99 CMCSA 6 2 -33.67% $8,108 $5,378 69 41% - -$2,730 -47.7% 3.7d -
100 SOFI 10 18 -37.85% $12,931 $8,037 123 53% - -$4,894 -43.4% 1.4d -
101 COIN 9 16 -43.65% $6,737 $3,796 132 52% - -$2,941 -67.1% 23.4h -
102 LCID 8 15 -51.14% $6,150 $3,005 132 53% - -$3,145 -69.8% 23.6h -
103 DOGEUSD -56.16% $10,101 $4,428 157 58% $5,179 -$5,672 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
104 MARA 11 14 -56.23% $15,492 $6,781 153 51% - -$8,711 -40.2% 16.1h -
105 BTCUSD 11 84🔥 -63.78% $1,991 $721 254 58% $15,700 -$1,270 -95.2% 1.1d -
106 LINKUSD -63.82% $10,099 $3,654 165 56% $5,330 -$6,445 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
107 ETHUSD -70.46% $10,096 $2,982 168 54% $4,681 -$7,114 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
108 DOTUSD -79.73% $10,098 $2,047 243 55% $4,762 -$8,051 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
109 AVAXUSD -87.17% $10,099 $1,296 264 54% $5,219 -$8,803 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
110 PEPEUSD -87.54% $10,092 $1,258 348 56% $8,303 -$8,835 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
111 XRPUSD -88.33% $10,103 $1,179 301 55% $5,991 -$8,924 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
112 UNIUSD -92.36% $10,100 $772 394 55% $7,266 -$9,329 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025
113 LTCUSD -95.08% $9,001 $443 479 59% $10,066 -$8,558 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
114 SOLUSD -97.51% $6,769 $169 562 59% $10,449 -$6,600 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.