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Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 May 7, 2026 (125d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Rebel Contraire's performance over the year to date across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,015
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,323 ($-308)
-2.72%
Year to Date ROI
56.5%
Win Rate
4,686
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+3.0%
1 Month
-3.6%
3 Months
-4.4%
6 Months
-2.7%
YTD
+2.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Year to Date)

Stock Volume
$40,002,518
3,344 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$3,622,529
1,342 trades
Crypto Fees
$9,056
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 May 7, 2026 (125 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 INTC 33 88🔥 +61.91% $9,744 $15,776 47 70% - +$6,032 -45.8% 1.7d -
2 VXX 10 50🔥 +57.71% $5,153 $8,126 48 71% - +$2,974 -57.1% 1.8d -
3 USO 33 42 +50.45% $9,067 $13,641 39 74% - +$4,574 -29.6% 3.3d -
4 XLE 61 13🧊 +41.77% $13,384 $18,974 28 86% - +$5,590 -12.9% 4.0d -
5 OXY 35 19 +39.32% $10,797 $15,043 37 76% - +$4,245 -31.5% 3.1d -
6 GME 26 44 +38.08% $8,839 $12,204 35 74% - +$3,366 -32.4% 1.4d -
7 SMCI 12 67🔥 +31.46% $7,068 $9,292 47 62% - +$2,224 -63.9% 22.3h -
8 AMD 23 95🔥 +29.57% $9,098 $11,789 44 70% - +$2,690 -52.6% 1.8d -
9 COP 27 48🔥 +24.99% $9,569 $11,960 34 71% - +$2,391 -20.4% 3.2d -
10 ARM 37 68🔥 +24.69% $12,578 $15,684 47 62% - +$3,106 -36.8% 1.4d -
11 CVX 69 13🧊 +24.05% $16,701 $20,718 28 75% - +$4,017 -12.9% 3.9d -
12 SPXU 19 9 +22.92% $8,569 $10,533 38 63% - +$1,964 -29.5% 2.3d -
13 IBM 50 46 +22.84% $13,205 $16,222 30 67% - +$3,016 -11.2% 3.4d -
14 MRNA 42 16🧊 +21.32% $17,265 $20,946 48 63% - +$3,681 -42.5% 1.3d -
15 SLB 15 71🔥 +20.92% $8,455 $10,224 35 66% - +$1,769 -24.3% 2.9d -
16 XOM 48 36 +20.13% $13,626 $16,369 29 72% - +$2,743 -13.9% 3.6d -
17 SNOW 31 14 +20.08% $13,192 $15,842 45 64% - +$2,649 -41.0% 2.0d -
18 NET 36 54 +18.25% $13,061 $15,444 46 63% - +$2,384 -29.4% 1.9d -
19 AMZN 30 76🔥 +18.18% $11,018 $13,021 33 70% - +$2,003 -27.2% 2.9d -
20 GLD 70 45🧊 +17.56% $17,216 $20,239 30 63% - +$3,023 -11.3% 4.4d -
21 NFLX 46 13🧊 +15.19% $15,397 $17,736 29 62% - +$2,339 -19.6% 3.1d -
22 XLK 26 76🔥 +14.35% $10,428 $11,924 26 69% - +$1,496 -30.8% 3.7d -
23 BAC 39 67🔥 +13.88% $13,341 $15,193 28 64% - +$1,852 -19.8% 3.5d -
24 KO 33 43 +13.14% $11,595 $13,119 21 76% - +$1,524 -18.7% 4.6d -
25 WMT 54 14🧊 +12.73% $15,833 $17,848 27 67% - +$2,016 -14.2% 4.1d -
26 CSCO 70 51 +11.86% $17,235 $19,280 24 54% - +$2,044 -9.7% 4.0d -
27 GOOGL 58 77 +11.62% $22,289 $24,879 27 59% - +$2,590 -25.1% 3.0d -
28 AXP 57 60 +11.18% $17,277 $19,209 27 59% - +$1,932 -13.8% 3.2d -
29 UVXY 10 47🔥 +10.98% $8,381 $9,301 54 63% - +$920 -48.5% 22.7h -
30 AAPL 37 53 +9.24% $13,260 $14,486 23 65% - +$1,225 -20.3% 3.7d -
31 PG 20 40 +9.23% $9,783 $10,686 24 54% - +$903 -19.3% 4.7d -
32 RIOT 11 43🔥 +7.64% $5,151 $5,544 53 62% - +$394 -55.6% 17.3h -
33 JNJ 43 3🧊 +7.61% $12,868 $13,847 24 50% - +$979 -9.8% 4.5d -
34 NVDA 45 70🔥 +7.58% $20,915 $22,501 32 59% - +$1,585 -35.3% 1.8d -
35 COST 32 12 +7.43% $11,987 $12,878 23 65% - +$891 -17.4% 4.1d -
36 PANW 42 32 +5.98% $15,192 $16,100 41 68% - +$908 -18.6% 2.6d -
37 PFE 9 2 +5.81% $8,067 $8,535 22 64% - +$469 -30.4% 3.8d -
38 QQQ 21 66🔥 +5.09% $10,158 $10,675 23 52% - +$517 -24.0% 4.3d -
39 JPM 36 44 +4.80% $13,653 $14,308 26 65% - +$655 -21.7% 3.6d -
40 PEP 20 20 +4.37% $10,206 $10,653 24 63% - +$446 -16.0% 4.4d -
41 VZ 22 6 +3.87% $10,447 $10,851 24 58% - +$404 -15.3% 4.2d -
42 IWM 39 53 +3.23% $13,558 $13,995 23 57% - +$438 -11.9% 3.8d -
43 SPY 53 51 +2.99% $14,470 $14,903 20 60% - +$433 -9.7% 4.8d -
44 VOO 55 52 +2.95% $14,897 $15,337 20 55% - +$439 -9.6% 4.9d -
45 RIVN 10 16 +2.55% $4,728 $4,849 48 58% - +$121 -60.0% 1.1d -
46 SOXL 43 35 +2.53% $20,036 $20,543 54 57% - +$507 -33.0% 20.2h -
47 DIA 39 45 +2.31% $13,305 $13,613 21 48% - +$307 -13.6% 5.1d -
48 BLK 32 27 +1.97% $12,847 $13,100 29 48% - +$253 -17.7% 3.6d -
49 C 32 64🔥 +1.76% $12,897 $13,124 31 61% - +$227 -21.2% 3.0d -
50 VTI 49 50 +1.47% $14,350 $14,561 20 55% - +$211 -10.5% 4.8d -
51 AMGN 24 25 +0.91% $11,217 $11,319 27 52% - +$102 -20.8% 3.6d -
52 PLTR 45 51 +0.87% $19,749 $19,921 47 57% - +$172 -26.0% 1.3d -
53 BMY 10 2 +0.56% $9,182 $9,234 24 54% - +$51 -39.5% 3.0d -
54 V 36 49 +0.18% $13,231 $13,255 23 48% - +$24 -11.9% 4.2d -
55 GILD 39 6🧊 +0.04% $14,732 $14,737 26 58% - +$6 -16.0% 3.6d -
56 META 33 26 -0.09% $15,111 $15,098 28 57% - -$14 -36.9% 2.8d -
57 XLF 35 17 -0.17% $13,443 $13,420 22 55% - -$23 -17.8% 4.8d -
58 MCD 20 1 -0.20% $10,776 $10,754 20 45% - -$22 -15.2% 4.4d -
59 PM 34 56🔥 -0.59% $13,768 $13,686 29 62% - -$81 -19.7% 3.9d -
60 AVGO 44 49 -1.71% $18,447 $18,131 37 57% - -$315 -21.1% 1.9d -
61 PYPL 11 67🔥 -3.36% $8,814 $8,517 34 59% - -$296 -52.5% 2.7d -
62 BRK-B 43 5🧊 -3.82% $14,621 $14,063 21 43% - -$559 -10.0% 4.4d -
63 TLT 10 3 -3.92% $9,184 $8,824 18 44% - -$360 -15.8% 5.2d -
64 WFC 35 6🧊 -4.01% $13,996 $13,435 28 57% - -$561 -17.9% 3.2d -
65 MS 42 71🔥 -4.21% $17,120 $16,400 30 53% - -$721 -18.0% 3.4d -
66 ORCL 32 31 -5.67% $16,303 $15,379 40 53% - -$924 -37.5% 2.4d -
67 COIN 9 16 -6.39% $4,185 $3,918 47 55% - -$267 -67.1% 23.4h -
68 SCHW 24 5 -6.39% $12,293 $11,507 28 54% - -$786 -16.1% 3.8d -
69 DKNG 12 59🔥 -7.13% $9,250 $8,590 43 56% - -$659 -46.7% 1.8d -
70 VRTX 21 6 -7.13% $11,544 $10,721 26 46% - -$823 -21.3% 3.5d -
71 MA 37 10🧊 -7.46% $14,692 $13,596 26 46% - -$1,096 -12.2% 4.1d -
72 ACN 8 37🔥 -8.22% $7,415 $6,805 31 55% - -$610 -41.3% 3.4d -
73 BIIB 10 40🔥 -8.36% $9,205 $8,436 30 50% - -$770 -32.7% 3.0d -
74 TMO 10 5 -8.48% $9,667 $8,847 29 52% - -$820 -23.9% 3.6d -
75 AMC 9 15 -8.58% $4,796 $4,384 39 51% - -$411 -57.1% 1.4d -
76 SQQQ 9 9 -8.99% $6,885 $6,266 45 56% - -$619 -53.7% 1.5d -
77 MU 40 52 -9.18% $21,092 $19,156 50 56% - -$1,936 -32.2% 1.8d -
78 MSFT 29 59🔥 -10.41% $13,849 $12,408 28 54% - -$1,442 -19.1% 3.9d -
79 DIS 8 2 -10.48% $9,821 $8,792 24 42% - -$1,029 -25.4% 3.7d -
80 REGN 11 10 -10.62% $9,057 $8,095 27 48% - -$962 -42.3% 3.1d -
81 CRM 10 15 -10.63% $7,112 $6,356 35 57% - -$756 -46.3% 3.1d -
82 MRK 12 5 -11.14% $10,209 $9,072 28 54% - -$1,137 -29.6% 3.5d -
83 GS 58 13🧊 -11.44% $21,993 $19,477 30 47% - -$2,516 -13.2% 3.2d -
84 ADBE 9 52🔥 -11.60% $7,564 $6,686 31 55% - -$877 -40.9% 3.1d -
85 TSLA 28 80🔥 -11.94% $14,751 $12,990 35 51% - -$1,761 -37.6% 1.5d -
86 HD 19 6 -12.33% $12,195 $10,691 27 33% - -$1,504 -18.6% 3.9d -
87 LLY 23 7 -12.57% $13,195 $11,536 33 42% - -$1,659 -33.4% 2.6d -
88 NIO 9 35🔥 -14.12% $7,899 $6,783 41 54% - -$1,115 -39.7% 1.4d -
89 UNH 10 64🔥 -14.30% $8,758 $7,506 24 46% - -$1,252 -41.5% 3.0d -
90 MDT 7 5 -15.46% $10,765 $9,101 25 32% - -$1,664 -15.1% 4.3d -
91 CMCSA 6 2 -16.79% $6,463 $5,378 23 39% - -$1,085 -47.7% 3.7d -
92 ISRG 17 5 -16.82% $12,375 $10,294 27 37% - -$2,082 -39.2% 3.1d -
93 BTCUSD 11 84🔥 -17.84% $905 $744 111 60% $15,696 -$162 -95.2% 1.1d -
94 SLV 32 9🧊 -22.08% $16,907 $13,174 44 48% - -$3,733 -18.7% 2.8d -
95 CRWD 13 27 -22.38% $12,447 $9,661 39 49% - -$2,786 -37.8% 1.8d -
96 LCID 8 15 -23.68% $3,937 $3,005 48 52% - -$932 -69.8% 23.6h -
97 ABBV 13 3 -24.00% $13,257 $10,075 27 41% - -$3,182 -25.0% 3.7d -
98 HOOD 11 40🔥 -25.91% $13,035 $9,658 44 45% - -$3,377 -32.1% 1.3d -
99 ARKK 11 12 -30.49% $11,530 $8,014 33 42% - -$3,515 -23.5% 2.4d -
100 SOFI 10 18 -32.13% $11,841 $8,037 43 47% - -$3,805 -43.4% 1.4d -
101 SHIBUSD -33.61% $10,098 $6,704 87 57% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
102 MARA 11 14 -35.72% $10,549 $6,781 56 46% - -$3,768 -40.2% 16.1h -
103 TQQQ 11 35🔥 -39.98% $9,756 $5,855 41 39% - -$3,900 -41.0% 1.5d -
104 LTCUSD -40.31% $742 $443 95 57% $10,066 -$299 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
105 RBLX 31 13 -40.61% $23,118 $13,730 47 49% - -$9,388 -34.9% 1.9d -
106 DOGEUSD -41.24% $7,536 $4,428 121 59% $5,179 -$3,108 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
107 AVAXUSD -41.95% $2,232 $1,296 99 58% $5,219 -$936 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
108 DOTUSD -44.06% $3,659 $2,047 141 58% $4,762 -$1,612 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
109 XRPUSD -48.25% $2,278 $1,179 113 56% $5,991 -$1,099 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
110 LINKUSD -49.71% $7,266 $3,654 106 55% $5,330 -$3,612 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
111 ETHUSD -50.70% $6,050 $2,982 99 53% $4,681 -$3,067 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
112 PEPEUSD -50.98% $2,565 $1,258 141 57% $8,303 -$1,308 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
113 SOLUSD -54.11% $367 $169 115 54% $10,449 -$199 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025
114 UNIUSD -59.66% $1,913 $772 114 53% $7,266 -$1,141 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.