Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

📊 View Performance: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years

Feb 14, 2024 → Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)

🎯 Asset Class: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All Assets 114 ⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees - results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Marcus Reversal $10,000 and let him trade 12 crypto symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$3,666

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 ($-6,334)

-63.34%

2-Year ROI

36.5%

Win Rate

2,875

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

0 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$14,624,525

2,875 trades

Crypto Fees

$36,561

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Feb 14, 2024 → Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SOLUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	+2.73%	🔄 $10,092	$10,534	8	50%	$451	+$442	-99.5%	21.3h	1	Feb 6, 2026 22d left
2	DOGEUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-31.86%	🔄 $10,100	$6,954	19	26%	$804	-$3,146	-99.3%	18.0h	1	Jan 31, 2026 16d left
3	PEPEUSD ₿	-38.55%	🔄 $10,097	$6,297	72	36%	$3,575	-$3,800	-99.9%	10.8h	1	Dec 18, 2025
4	SHIBUSD ₿	-43.35%	🔄 $10,099	$5,750	49	31%	$2,072	-$4,348	-99.5%	19.9h	1	Dec 18, 2025
5	LINKUSD ₿	-50.31%	🔄 $10,097	$5,043	55	31%	$2,274	-$5,054	-99.3%	19.5h	1	Dec 1, 2025
6	BTCUSD ₿	-68.53%	$10,000	$3,147	285	40%	$12,317	-$6,853	-78.6%	2.4d	✓	-
7	UNIUSD ₿	-79.69%	🔄 $10,098	$2,105	169	33%	$5,164	-$7,993	-99.3%	16.8h	1	Sep 25, 2025
8	DOTUSD ₿	-80.79%	🔄 $10,099	$1,950	217	36%	$8,512	-$8,149	-99.1%	21.7h	1	Jun 21, 2025
9	AVAXUSD ₿	-81.71%	🔄 $10,099	$1,856	216	36%	$8,446	-$8,242	-99.1%	18.6h	1	Jun 22, 2025
10	LTCUSD ₿	-94.80%	$10,000	$520	626	40%	$10,334	-$9,480	-95.7%	1.1d	✓	-
11	XRPUSD ₿	-96.33%	$10,000	$367	652	40%	$12,753	-$9,633	-96.4%	1.1d	✓	-
12	ETHUSD ₿	-96.94%	$10,000	$306	507	37%	$9,854	-$9,694	-98.0%	1.4d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.