⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)                    

→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS:
                        3
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        2%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -3%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        5
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Feb 14, 2024 → Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SHIBUSD ₿	-31.13%	🔄 $10,098	$7,025	69	58%	$2,916	-$3,073	-99.3%	8.9h	2	Jan 12, 2026
2	DOGEUSD ₿	-56.75%	🔄 $10,100	$4,390	124	57%	$4,499	-$5,709	-99.1%	8.2h	2	Dec 7, 2025
3	LINKUSD ₿	-61.96%	🔄 $10,099	$3,920	139	57%	$4,852	-$6,180	-99.1%	9.0h	2	Nov 21, 2025
4	ETHUSD ₿	-71.27%	🔄 $10,097	$2,943	141	53%	$4,303	-$7,153	-99.2%	15.1h	1	Nov 13, 2025
5	DOTUSD ₿	-82.31%	🔄 $10,099	$1,831	194	53%	$4,291	-$8,267	-99.0%	9.9h	2	Nov 12, 2025
6	PEPEUSD ₿	-85.69%	🔄 $10,095	$1,473	328	57%	$8,171	-$8,622	-99.6%	5.0h	2	Sep 22, 2025
7	AVAXUSD ₿	-87.74%	🔄 $10,098	$1,263	239	53%	$5,066	-$8,835	-99.2%	8.7h	2	Oct 10, 2025
8	XRPUSD ₿	-87.91%	🔄 $10,099	$1,240	274	55%	$5,836	-$8,859	-99.0%	11.7h	1	Aug 14, 2025
9	UNIUSD ₿	-92.81%	🔄 $10,098	$746	369	55%	$7,173	-$9,353	-99.1%	8.0h	2	Sep 1, 2025
10	BTCUSD ₿	-93.56%	$10,000	$644	649	61%	$15,502	-$9,356	-95.2%	1.1d	✓	-
11	LTCUSD ₿	-95.68%	🔄 $10,097	$445	591	60%	$10,007	-$9,652	-99.1%	11.8h	1	Mar 3, 2025
12	SOLUSD ₿	-98.39%	🔄 $10,099	$164	727	59%	$10,413	-$9,935	-99.1%	9.6h	1	Feb 18, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.