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Trent Follower
10

Trent Follower

The Disciple

🎯 Swing Trader 📅 43 years old (Born 1983)

"I don't have opinions about where the market should go. I only observe where it's going."

Simple clothing, no logos. Reads "Market Wizards" once a year like scripture. Has a signed photo of Ed Seykota on his wall.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Trent Follower $10,000 and let him trade 12 crypto symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$5,115
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 ($-4,885)
-48.85%
2-Year ROI
33.7%
Win Rate
2,236
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+3.1%
1 Month
-3.4%
3 Months
-6.9%
6 Months
-8.8%
YTD
-20.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$13,445,561
2,236 trades
Crypto Fees
$33,614
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

50-day MA trend following, 3% strength threshold

Identifies established trends using the 50-day moving average. Enters when price is 3% above the MA (confirming strength) and exits when it crosses below.

🎯 Best Suited For

Commodities, currencies, trending markets

"Don't fight the tape. Don't predict the tape. Just follow the tape."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend because information is absorbed gradually. Trent doesn't catch bottoms or tops—he catches middles, which is where the money is.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

Close ≥ SMA50 × 1.03 (3% above 50-day MA)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TREND_BREAK: Close < SMA50 (fell below 50-day MA)
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.15 (+15% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.93 (-7% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

MA_PERIOD: 50
ENTRY_THRESHOLD_PCT: 3%
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 15%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -7%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: The legendary Turtle Traders experiment

In 1983, Richard Dennis bet he could teach anyone to trade. His "Turtles" earned over $175 million in five years using simple trend-following rules.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 ETHUSD 4 -5.77% $10,000 $9,423 92 41% $4,995 -$577 -15.0% 4.2h -
2 LTCUSD 4 -8.60% $10,000 $9,140 119 37% $7,719 -$860 -34.2% 3.6h -
3 DOTUSD 5 1 -22.19% $10,000 $7,781 164 34% $8,451 -$2,219 -42.0% 3.6h -
4 BTCUSD 2 -23.28% $10,000 $7,672 27 41% $1,851 -$2,328 -23.1% 3.7h -
5 AVAXUSD 4 -46.42% $10,000 $5,358 180 39% $7,881 -$4,642 -51.9% 3.6h -
6 XRPUSD 4 -46.93% $10,000 $5,307 186 31% $7,365 -$4,693 -50.6% 3.3h -
7 SHIBUSD 2 -61.22% $10,000 $3,878 194 27% $13,657 -$6,122 -73.4% 3.2h -
8 LINKUSD 2 0 -64.55% $10,000 $3,545 203 31% $7,992 -$6,455 -63.7% 3.4h -
9 SOLUSD 3 -66.02% $10,000 $3,398 142 33% $5,652 -$6,602 -66.6% 3.7h -
10 UNIUSD 2 0 -70.50% $10,000 $2,950 273 30% $9,112 -$7,050 -78.6% 3.3h -
11 DOGEUSD 2 1 -82.18% $10,000 $1,782 237 29% $8,385 -$8,218 -84.5% 3.3h -
12 PEPEUSD -88.56% 🔄 $10,099 $1,206 419 31% $9,163 -$8,894 -99.0% 2.9h 1 Apr 16, 2024

👤 Personality

Humble, disciplined, almost monk-like. Doesn't predict, only reacts. Believes fighting trends is ego, and ego is expensive.