TLT Anchor's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 31 trades in period
-1.18%
Last Year Return
$10,299.07
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,421.82
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
17
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.5/35
Total Return
4.2/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
18.2/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 17.5
30-Day Momentum
14
+0.3%
30d Return
45%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.7
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,402
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,421.82
Current Value
$10,299.07
Period P&L
$-122.75
Max Drawdown
-3.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
15 /
16
Best Trade
+1.33%
Worst Trade
-1.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$450,716.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-122.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-122.75
Gross Return
-1.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $10,421.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 1:00pm ET | $87.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 9:35am ET | $87.03 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,412.30 |
$-9.52 (-0.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 1:05pm ET | $84.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,302.78 |
$-109.52 (-1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 1:15pm ET | $84.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,406.23 |
+$103.45 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 1:05pm ET | $85.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 3:40pm ET | $86.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,440.72 |
+$34.49 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 2:05pm ET | $85.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $85.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,472.05 |
+$31.33 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 2:15pm ET | $87.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $87.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,529.74 |
+$57.69 (+0.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $84.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 11:55am ET | $84.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,564.46 |
+$34.72 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 2:35pm ET | $90.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,458.49 |
$-105.97 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 1:25pm ET | $90.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,465.96 |
+$7.47 (+0.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.33 | 118 | $10,422.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.28 | 118 | $10,417.04 | $10,460.06 |
$-5.90 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.80 | 117 | $10,389.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.76 | 117 | $10,268.50 | $10,338.96 |
$-121.10 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.91 | 118 | $10,255.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.93 | 118 | $10,257.74 | $10,341.32 |
+$2.36 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $87.14 | 118 | $10,283.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.39 | 118 | $10,311.43 | $10,369.64 |
+$28.32 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.36 | 118 | $10,309.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.06 | 118 | $10,272.49 | $10,333.06 |
$-36.58 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.81 | 119 | $10,330.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $85.90 | 119 | $10,222.69 | $10,225.37 |
$-107.69 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $86.35 | 118 | $10,188.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 118 | $10,112.01 | $10,148.67 |
$-76.70 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $86.74 | 117 | $10,148.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.33 | 117 | $10,100.61 | $10,100.70 |
$-47.97 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 118 | $10,086.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 118 | $10,221.16 | $10,235.22 |
+$134.52 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $86.64 | 118 | $10,224.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.28 | 118 | $10,181.04 | $10,192.15 |
$-43.07 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.21 | 118 | $10,172.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.51 | 118 | $10,208.18 | $10,228.14 |
+$35.99 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.54 | 118 | $10,211.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.25 | 118 | $10,295.50 | $10,311.92 |
+$83.78 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.69 | 118 | $10,229.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.63 | 118 | $10,222.10 | $10,304.60 |
$-7.32 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.43 | 119 | $10,285.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.71 | 119 | $10,318.49 | $10,337.92 |
+$33.32 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,268.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.90 | 118 | $10,254.20 | $10,323.17 |
$-14.75 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,269.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.10 | 118 | $10,277.80 | $10,331.43 |
+$8.26 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.97 | 118 | $10,262.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,269.54 | $10,338.51 |
+$7.08 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $86.86 | 119 | $10,335.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.46 | 119 | $10,288.15 | $10,290.91 |
$-47.60 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.49 | 118 | $10,205.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.11 | 118 | $10,160.98 | $10,246.66 |
$-44.25 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.98 | 119 | $10,231.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.89 | 119 | $10,220.32 | $10,235.35 |
$-11.31 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 119 | $10,172.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.35 | 119 | $10,156.65 | $10,219.32 |
$-16.03 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $85.36 | 119 | $10,158.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.04 | 119 | $10,238.17 | $10,299.07 |
+$79.75 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,299.07
Net Profit/Loss:
+$299.07
Total Return:
+2.99%