LLY Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 36 trades in period
-6.40%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,719.99
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$9,316.63
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality
12.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.5
30-Day Momentum
12
+0.2%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.5
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,316.63
Current Value
$8,719.99
Period P&L
$-596.64
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
13 /
23
Best Trade
+2.02%
Worst Trade
-2.21%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
19.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$603,168.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-596.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-596.64
Gross Return
-6.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.40%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $9,316.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $912.03 | 10 | $9,120.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $902.70 | 10 | $9,027.00 | $9,223.38 |
$-93.25 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $910.70 | 10 | $9,106.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $913.25 | 10 | $9,132.50 | $9,248.93 |
+$25.55 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $894.39 | 10 | $8,943.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:00pm ET | $885.05 | 10 | $8,850.50 | $9,155.53 |
$-93.40 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:20pm ET | $886.92 | 10 | $8,869.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $894.46 | 10 | $8,944.58 | $9,230.91 |
+$75.38 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:20pm ET | $961.21 | 9 | $8,650.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $940.00 | 9 | $8,460.00 | $9,040.06 |
$-190.85 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $928.72 | 9 | $8,358.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $922.00 | 9 | $8,298.00 | $8,979.57 |
$-60.49 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $956.79 | 9 | $8,611.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $947.50 | 9 | $8,527.50 | $8,895.96 |
$-83.61 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $939.69 | 9 | $8,457.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $934.65 | 9 | $8,411.86 | $8,850.61 |
$-45.35 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $921.77 | 9 | $8,295.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $922.16 | 9 | $8,299.44 | $8,854.12 |
+$3.51 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $906.58 | 9 | $8,159.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $919.93 | 9 | $8,279.37 | $8,974.27 |
+$120.15 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $917.47 | 9 | $8,257.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $912.08 | 9 | $8,208.72 | $8,925.80 |
$-48.47 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $915.73 | 9 | $8,241.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $925.40 | 9 | $8,328.56 | $9,012.74 |
+$86.94 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $900.42 | 10 | $9,004.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $889.48 | 10 | $8,894.80 | $8,903.34 |
$-109.40 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $883.13 | 10 | $8,831.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $873.99 | 10 | $8,739.90 | $8,811.95 |
$-91.39 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $862.98 | 10 | $8,629.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $854.00 | 10 | $8,540.00 | $8,722.15 |
$-89.80 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $937.90 | 9 | $8,441.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $947.49 | 9 | $8,527.41 | $8,808.50 |
+$86.35 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $956.83 | 9 | $8,611.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $975.00 | 9 | $8,775.00 | $8,972.07 |
+$163.57 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $986.76 | 9 | $8,880.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $985.50 | 9 | $8,869.50 | $8,960.73 |
$-11.34 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $967.59 | 9 | $8,708.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $951.80 | 9 | $8,566.20 | $8,818.66 |
$-142.07 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $981.78 | 8 | $7,854.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:25pm ET | $971.20 | 8 | $7,769.60 | $8,734.02 |
$-84.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:55pm ET | $992.76 | 8 | $7,942.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $992.01 | 8 | $7,936.08 | $8,728.02 |
$-6.00 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,015.06 | 8 | $8,120.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,001.75 | 8 | $8,014.00 | $8,621.54 |
$-106.48 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,004.14 | 8 | $8,033.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,001.13 | 8 | $8,009.00 | $8,597.38 |
$-24.16 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,010.95 | 8 | $8,087.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,024.33 | 8 | $8,194.64 | $8,704.42 |
+$107.04 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,038.26 | 8 | $8,306.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,047.07 | 8 | $8,376.56 | $8,774.90 |
+$70.48 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,061.11 | 8 | $8,488.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,071.17 | 8 | $8,569.36 | $8,855.38 |
+$80.48 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $1,127.71 | 7 | $7,893.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,125.41 | 7 | $7,877.87 | $8,839.28 |
$-16.10 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,087.44 | 8 | $8,699.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:15am ET | $1,076.42 | 8 | $8,611.32 | $8,751.04 |
$-88.24 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,065.34 | 8 | $8,522.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,060.74 | 8 | $8,485.92 | $8,714.24 |
$-36.80 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,133.12 | 7 | $7,931.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $1,120.90 | 7 | $7,846.30 | $8,628.70 |
$-85.54 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $1,135.73 | 7 | $7,950.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,158.66 | 7 | $8,110.62 | $8,789.18 |
+$160.48 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,152.00 | 7 | $8,064.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,139.82 | 7 | $7,978.77 | $8,703.95 |
$-85.23 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $1,142.10 | 7 | $7,994.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,141.88 | 7 | $7,993.13 | $8,702.38 |
$-1.57 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,159.28 | 7 | $8,114.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,147.42 | 7 | $8,031.91 | $8,619.33 |
$-83.05 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,128.52 | 7 | $7,899.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,136.13 | 7 | $7,952.91 | $8,672.63 |
+$53.30 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,114.28 | 7 | $7,799.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,121.04 | 7 | $7,847.28 | $8,719.99 |
+$47.36 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,719.99
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,280.01
Total Return:
-12.80%