NIO Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 38 trades in period
+5.78%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,363.05
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$10,741.66
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.2/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
26.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 26.5
30-Day Momentum
17
+1.1%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,741.66
Current Value
$11,363.05
Period P&L
$621.39
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
13 /
25
Best Trade
+7.32%
Worst Trade
-4.22%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
20.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$852,032.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$621.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$621.39
Gross Return
+5.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.78%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $10,741.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.75 | 1,868 | $10,741.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.75 | 1,868 | $10,735.40 | $10,736.06 |
$-5.60 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.84 | 1,836 | $10,731.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 1,836 | $10,529.46 | $10,534.10 |
$-201.96 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.53 | 1,904 | $10,531.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.47 | 1,904 | $10,405.36 | $10,407.67 |
$-126.43 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $5.55 | 1,873 | $10,404.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $5.49 | 1,873 | $10,287.27 | $10,290.42 |
$-117.25 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:10pm ET | $6.00 | 1,715 | $10,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.29 | 1,715 | $10,784.43 | $10,784.85 |
+$494.43 (+4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.07 | 1,775 | $10,783.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.36 | 1,775 | $11,289.00 | $11,290.73 |
+$505.88 (+4.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,835 | $11,287.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $6.08 | 1,835 | $11,156.80 | $11,159.89 |
$-130.84 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $6.47 | 1,723 | $11,156.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.41 | 1,723 | $11,042.53 | $11,046.00 |
$-113.89 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.09 | 1,812 | $11,044.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.11 | 1,812 | $11,080.38 | $11,082.24 |
+$36.24 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.50 | 1,704 | $11,077.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.52 | 1,704 | $11,110.08 | $11,115.13 |
+$32.89 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.48 | 1,715 | $11,113.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $6.41 | 1,715 | $10,993.15 | $10,995.08 |
$-120.05 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $6.88 | 1,598 | $10,994.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $6.81 | 1,598 | $10,882.38 | $10,883.22 |
$-111.86 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $6.67 | 1,631 | $10,878.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,631 | $10,829.84 | $10,834.29 |
$-48.93 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.55 | 1,652 | $10,828.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.43 | 1,652 | $10,622.36 | $10,627.79 |
$-206.50 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.16 | 1,725 | $10,626.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.34 | 1,725 | $10,929.08 | $10,930.87 |
+$303.08 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,777 | $10,928.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,777 | $11,728.20 | $11,730.52 |
+$799.65 (+7.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,873 | $11,724.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.17 | 1,873 | $11,556.41 | $11,562.51 |
$-168.01 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.11 | 1,892 | $11,560.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.01 | 1,892 | $11,380.38 | $11,382.77 |
$-179.74 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:20pm ET | $6.09 | 1,870 | $11,378.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.08 | 1,870 | $11,369.60 | $11,373.42 |
$-9.35 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,990 | $11,367.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.98 | 1,990 | $11,895.42 | $11,900.97 |
+$527.55 (+4.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $5.89 | 2,022 | $11,899.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.92 | 2,022 | $11,970.24 | $11,971.74 |
+$70.77 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.99 | 1,998 | $11,968.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $5.91 | 1,998 | $11,812.18 | $11,815.90 |
$-155.84 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.48 | 1,823 | $11,813.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.42 | 1,823 | $11,703.66 | $11,706.52 |
$-109.38 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.20 | 1,889 | $11,702.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.12 | 1,889 | $11,560.68 | $11,564.84 |
$-141.68 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.95 | 1,943 | $11,560.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.89 | 1,943 | $11,434.56 | $11,438.55 |
$-126.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.74 | 1,992 | $11,434.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.64 | 1,992 | $11,234.88 | $11,239.15 |
$-199.40 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.55 | 2,023 | $11,237.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.49 | 2,023 | $11,116.38 | $11,117.77 |
$-121.38 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $5.22 | 2,131 | $11,113.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.26 | 2,131 | $11,198.41 | $11,203.01 |
+$85.24 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.63 | 1,989 | $11,198.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $5.57 | 1,989 | $11,078.73 | $11,083.67 |
$-119.34 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $5.49 | 2,019 | $11,081.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 2,019 | $11,589.06 | $11,591.04 |
+$507.37 (+4.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $6.06 | 1,912 | $11,588.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $6.00 | 1,912 | $11,472.00 | $11,474.98 |
$-116.06 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $5.76 | 1,992 | $11,473.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.84 | 1,992 | $11,633.28 | $11,634.34 |
+$159.36 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
17.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.55 | 2,096 | $11,633.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $5.49 | 2,096 | $11,508.51 | $11,509.84 |
$-124.50 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:20am ET | $5.49 | 2,094 | $11,506.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $5.43 | 2,094 | $11,380.89 | $11,384.20 |
$-125.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $5.29 | 2,152 | $11,384.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.20 | 2,152 | $11,190.40 | $11,190.52 |
$-193.68 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.16 | 2,166 | $11,187.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.30 | 2,166 | $11,479.80 | $11,482.93 |
+$292.41 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:05am ET | $5.25 | 2,186 | $11,479.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.03 | 2,186 | $10,995.58 | $10,998.73 |
$-484.20 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.98 | 2,208 | $10,995.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.14 | 2,208 | $11,360.16 | $11,363.05 |
+$364.32 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,363.05
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,363.05
Total Return:
+13.63%