NIO Anchor's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+23.16%
Year to Date Return
$11,373.42
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$9,234.39
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.2/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
27.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 26.8
30-Day Momentum
33
+5.5%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.0
Conf: 0.98×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,229
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,234.39
Current Value
$11,373.42
Period P&L
$2,139.03
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+9.55%
Worst Trade
-1.91%
Avg Trade Return
+0.54%
Avg Hold Time
14h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$540,032.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,139.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,139.03
Gross Return
+23.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $9,234.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $4.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $4.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,112.25 |
$-122.14 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.69 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,001.85 |
$-110.40 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.69 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,050.32 |
+$48.47 (+0.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,134.50 |
+$84.18 (+0.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.62 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,162.21 |
+$27.71 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,039.96 |
$-122.25 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.54 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $4.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,084.54 |
+$44.58 (+0.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $4.62 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $4.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,143.58 |
+$59.04 (+0.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $4.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,188.83 |
+$45.25 (+0.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,073.03 |
$-115.80 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.56 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,132.89 |
+$59.86 (+0.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $4.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,209.22 |
+$76.33 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $4.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,240.15 |
+$30.93 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,386.31 |
+$146.16 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,458.46 |
+$72.15 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $4.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $4.99 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,506.08 |
+$47.62 (+0.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $4.75 | 2,001 | $9,504.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.79 | 2,001 | $9,584.79 | $9,586.12 |
+$80.04 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.34 | 1,795 | $9,585.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.85 | 1,795 | $10,500.93 | $10,501.57 |
+$915.45 (+9.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $5.65 | 1,858 | $10,497.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.57 | 1,858 | $10,339.77 | $10,343.64 |
$-157.93 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $5.86 | 1,766 | $10,339.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.99 | 1,766 | $10,587.17 | $10,590.88 |
+$247.24 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.96 | 1,777 | $10,590.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.90 | 1,777 | $10,484.30 | $10,484.62 |
$-106.26 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,836 | $10,483.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.85 | 1,836 | $10,740.60 | $10,741.66 |
+$257.04 (+2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.75 | 1,868 | $10,741.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.75 | 1,868 | $10,735.40 | $10,736.06 |
$-5.60 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.84 | 1,836 | $10,731.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 1,836 | $10,529.46 | $10,534.10 |
$-201.96 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.53 | 1,904 | $10,531.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.47 | 1,904 | $10,405.36 | $10,407.67 |
$-126.43 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $5.55 | 1,873 | $10,404.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $5.49 | 1,873 | $10,287.27 | $10,290.42 |
$-117.25 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:10pm ET | $6.00 | 1,715 | $10,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.29 | 1,715 | $10,784.43 | $10,784.85 |
+$494.43 (+4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.07 | 1,775 | $10,783.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.36 | 1,775 | $11,289.00 | $11,290.73 |
+$505.88 (+4.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,835 | $11,287.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $6.08 | 1,835 | $11,156.80 | $11,159.89 |
$-130.84 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $6.47 | 1,723 | $11,156.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.41 | 1,723 | $11,042.53 | $11,046.00 |
$-113.89 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.09 | 1,812 | $11,044.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.11 | 1,812 | $11,080.38 | $11,082.24 |
+$36.24 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.50 | 1,704 | $11,077.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.52 | 1,704 | $11,110.08 | $11,115.13 |
+$32.89 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.48 | 1,715 | $11,113.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $6.41 | 1,715 | $10,993.15 | $10,995.08 |
$-120.05 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $6.88 | 1,598 | $10,994.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $6.81 | 1,598 | $10,882.38 | $10,883.22 |
$-111.86 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $6.67 | 1,631 | $10,878.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,631 | $10,829.84 | $10,834.29 |
$-48.93 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.55 | 1,652 | $10,828.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.43 | 1,652 | $10,622.36 | $10,627.79 |
$-206.50 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.16 | 1,725 | $10,626.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.34 | 1,725 | $10,929.08 | $10,930.87 |
+$303.08 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,777 | $10,928.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,777 | $11,728.20 | $11,730.52 |
+$799.65 (+7.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,873 | $11,724.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.17 | 1,873 | $11,556.41 | $11,562.51 |
$-168.01 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.11 | 1,892 | $11,560.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.01 | 1,892 | $11,380.38 | $11,382.77 |
$-179.74 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:20pm ET | $6.09 | 1,870 | $11,378.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.08 | 1,870 | $11,369.60 | $11,373.42 |
$-9.35 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,373.42
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,373.42
Total Return:
+13.73%