SMCI Anchor's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 45 trades in period
-24.16%
Year to Date Return
$7,057.96
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$9,305.92
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
12.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.6
30-Day Momentum
34
+6.2%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.4
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,367
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,305.92
Current Value
$7,057.96
Period P&L
$-2,247.96
Max Drawdown
-31.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
21 /
24
Best Trade
+9.68%
Worst Trade
-25.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.50%
Avg Hold Time
11.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$417,141.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,247.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,247.96
Gross Return
-24.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $9,305.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $31.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,203.46 |
$-102.46 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $30.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,241.46 |
+$38.00 (+0.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $29.54 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $29.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,222.12 |
$-19.34 (-0.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $29.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,268.47 |
+$46.35 (+0.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $28.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,538.25 |
+$269.78 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $31.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $31.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,621.82 |
+$83.57 (+0.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $30.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,700.57 |
+$78.75 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $31.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $31.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,776.03 |
+$75.46 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $31.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,885.05 |
+$109.02 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $30.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,881.72 |
$-3.33 (-0.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $31.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,766.65 |
$-115.07 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $29.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.83 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,793.74 |
+$27.09 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $29.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,686.18 |
$-107.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $33.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $33.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,773.04 |
+$86.86 (+0.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.33 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,576.92 |
$-196.12 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $34.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,713.24 |
+$136.32 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.14 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,792.35 |
+$79.11 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $31.97 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,832.23 |
+$39.88 (+0.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.48 | 312 | $9,821.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.81 | 312 | $9,612.72 | $9,623.19 |
$-209.04 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $31.92 | 301 | $9,607.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.54 | 301 | $9,794.54 | $9,809.81 |
+$186.62 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.65 | 309 | $9,779.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $30.94 | 309 | $9,562.00 | $9,591.97 |
$-217.84 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $30.84 | 311 | $9,590.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:45am ET | $30.31 | 311 | $9,426.41 | $9,427.98 |
$-163.99 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:40pm ET | $31.46 | 299 | $9,406.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.94 | 299 | $9,550.06 | $9,571.50 |
+$143.52 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.30 | 305 | $9,546.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $30.97 | 305 | $9,445.85 | $9,470.85 |
$-100.65 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $30.11 | 314 | $9,454.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.57 | 314 | $7,086.98 | $7,103.29 |
$-2,367.56 (-25.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.16 | 352 | $7,094.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.79 | 352 | $6,966.08 | $6,974.81 |
$-128.48 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $21.59 | 322 | $6,953.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $21.33 | 322 | $6,869.87 | $6,891.09 |
$-83.72 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $23.49 | 293 | $6,882.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 293 | $6,859.13 | $6,867.65 |
$-23.44 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $21.77 | 315 | $6,857.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $21.51 | 315 | $6,777.22 | $6,787.32 |
$-80.33 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $21.23 | 319 | $6,772.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $21.00 | 319 | $6,700.59 | $6,715.54 |
$-71.78 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:05am ET | $22.99 | 292 | $6,713.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 292 | $6,644.46 | $6,646.92 |
$-68.62 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $22.99 | 289 | $6,642.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.08 | 289 | $6,671.56 | $6,675.82 |
+$28.90 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.91 | 304 | $6,660.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 304 | $7,305.12 | $7,320.30 |
+$644.48 (+9.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $23.28 | 314 | $7,309.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.75 | 314 | $7,456.65 | $7,467.03 |
+$146.73 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.07 | 297 | $7,445.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.75 | 297 | $7,350.75 | $7,371.99 |
$-95.04 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $27.41 | 268 | $7,345.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $27.04 | 268 | $7,246.72 | $7,272.83 |
$-99.16 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.69 | 272 | $7,261.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.00 | 272 | $7,888.00 | $7,899.79 |
+$626.96 (+8.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.16 | 280 | $7,884.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.83 | 280 | $7,791.00 | $7,805.99 |
$-93.80 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $29.31 | 266 | $7,795.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.93 | 266 | $7,694.61 | $7,705.47 |
$-100.52 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:35pm ET | $29.08 | 264 | $7,677.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 264 | $6,998.64 | $7,026.99 |
$-678.48 (-8.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $28.73 | 244 | $7,010.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.80 | 244 | $7,027.20 | $7,044.07 |
+$17.08 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.73 | 263 | $7,028.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.99 | 263 | $7,098.37 | $7,113.76 |
+$69.69 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $27.18 | 261 | $7,095.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.58 | 261 | $7,199.14 | $7,217.61 |
+$103.85 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.6h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $27.83 | 259 | $7,206.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $27.51 | 259 | $7,126.38 | $7,137.32 |
$-80.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $27.78 | 256 | $7,112.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $27.48 | 256 | $7,033.60 | $7,057.96 |
$-79.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,057.96
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,942.04
Total Return:
-29.42%