XLF Anchor's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 36 trades in period
+1.24%
Year to Date Return
$9,323.78
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$9,209.23
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
11.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.3
30-Day Momentum
9
-0.2%
30d Return
27%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,399
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,209.23
Current Value
$9,323.78
Period P&L
$114.54
Max Drawdown
-12.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
17 /
19
Best Trade
+1.91%
Worst Trade
-1.22%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
19.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$425,826.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$114.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$114.54
Gross Return
+1.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $9,209.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $55.83 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,225.73 |
+$16.50 (+0.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,170.80 |
$-54.93 (-0.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $53.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.64 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,191.18 |
+$20.38 (+0.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $53.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $53.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,253.94 |
+$62.76 (+0.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $52.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,325.28 |
+$71.34 (+0.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $52.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:25pm ET | $53.04 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,356.08 |
+$30.80 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $53.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $53.34 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,407.12 |
+$51.04 (+0.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $53.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $53.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,447.00 |
+$39.88 (+0.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $53.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $53.56 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,443.48 |
$-3.52 (-0.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $53.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $53.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,470.76 |
+$27.28 (+0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $53.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $53.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,370.44 |
$-100.32 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $52.72 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,276.82 |
$-93.62 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $52.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $51.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,169.46 |
$-107.36 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.49 | 181 | $9,139.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.95 | 181 | $9,040.95 | $9,070.82 |
$-98.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.66 | 182 | $9,038.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.34 | 182 | $9,161.88 | $9,194.58 |
+$123.76 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.96 | 184 | $9,192.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $49.35 | 184 | $9,080.40 | $9,082.34 |
$-112.24 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $48.93 | 185 | $9,052.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.31 | 185 | $9,122.35 | $9,152.64 |
+$70.30 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $49.26 | 185 | $9,113.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.82 | 185 | $9,216.70 | $9,256.24 |
+$103.60 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.30 | 187 | $9,219.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.76 | 187 | $9,118.12 | $9,155.26 |
$-100.98 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $48.93 | 187 | $9,149.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.80 | 187 | $9,312.60 | $9,317.95 |
+$162.69 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.87 | 190 | $9,285.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.80 | 190 | $9,462.00 | $9,494.65 |
+$176.70 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.22 | 192 | $9,450.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.64 | 192 | $9,338.88 | $9,383.29 |
$-111.36 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.54 | 193 | $9,368.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.98 | 193 | $9,453.14 | $9,468.15 |
+$84.86 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.19 | 192 | $9,444.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.80 | 192 | $9,369.60 | $9,393.27 |
$-74.88 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $49.85 | 188 | $9,371.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.63 | 188 | $9,329.50 | $9,350.97 |
$-42.30 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $51.12 | 182 | $9,302.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.99 | 182 | $9,280.18 | $9,328.22 |
$-22.75 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.24 | 182 | $9,326.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.67 | 182 | $9,221.03 | $9,222.66 |
$-105.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.60 | 182 | $9,209.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.56 | 182 | $9,384.83 | $9,398.29 |
+$175.63 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:20pm ET | $52.26 | 179 | $9,353.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.22 | 179 | $9,347.38 | $9,392.03 |
$-6.26 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $52.78 | 177 | $9,341.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.43 | 177 | $9,280.11 | $9,330.96 |
$-61.07 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $52.65 | 177 | $9,318.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.52 | 177 | $9,296.04 | $9,308.84 |
$-22.13 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.01 | 178 | $9,257.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $51.46 | 178 | $9,158.99 | $9,210.05 |
$-98.79 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $51.49 | 178 | $9,164.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.38 | 178 | $9,145.64 | $9,191.36 |
$-18.69 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:30pm ET | $52.06 | 176 | $9,163.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.19 | 176 | $9,185.44 | $9,213.36 |
+$22.00 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.47 | 179 | $9,213.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.37 | 179 | $9,374.23 | $9,374.46 |
+$161.10 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.72 | 181 | $9,361.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.44 | 181 | $9,310.64 | $9,323.78 |
$-50.68 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,323.78
Net Profit/Loss:
$-676.22
Total Return:
-6.76%