Compendium › Crash Catcher › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Crash Catcher's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 16:20:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+123.62%
2 Years Return
$27,813.63
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$12,437.75
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:24:18

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
98.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
97.1/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,658
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$12,437.75
Current Value
$27,813.63
Total P&L
$15,375.90
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
13.59

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
5
Winners / Losers
5 / 0
Best Trade
+17.99%
Worst Trade
+15.01%
Avg Trade Return
+16.02%
Avg Hold Time
153d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$197,568.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$15,375.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$15,375.90
Gross Return
+123.62%
Net Return (after fees)
+123.62%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crash Catcher had $12,437.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2024 9:30am ET $30.25 437 $13,218.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2024 9:30am ET $35.69 437 $15,596.53 $15,625.66 +$2,378.37
(+18.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
99d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2024 1:00pm ET $37.51 416 $15,602.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2024 3:45pm ET $43.13 416 $17,944.04 $17,967.62 +$2,341.96
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
167.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 11:05am ET $42.61 421 $17,938.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:35am ET $49.04 421 $20,643.78 $20,672.59 +$2,704.97
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
279.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:35am ET $49.07 421 $20,658.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET $57.30 421 $24,124.23 $24,138.34 +$3,465.76
(+16.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
32d held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET $58.17 414 $24,083.42 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:45am ET $67.05 414 $27,758.70 $27,813.63 +$3,675.29
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
187d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $27,813.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$17,813.63
Total Return: +178.14%
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