Compendium › Crasher Macro › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher Macro's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 09:40:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+29.34%
2 Years Return
$14,132.64
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,926.41
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:44:34

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
87.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
90.7/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,317
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,926.41
Current Value
$14,132.64
Total P&L
$3,206.23
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.98

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+15.52%
Worst Trade
+5.19%
Avg Trade Return
+9.07%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$72,699.89
Estimated Fees
$181.75
Gross P&L
$3,206.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,024.48
Gross Return
+29.34%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.68%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher Macro had $10,926.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2024 9:40pm ET $25.24 433 $10,926.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2024 9:40pm ET $26.67 433 $11,547.75 $11,491.56 +$565.15
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2024 9:05pm ET $19.25 597 $11,491.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:05pm ET $20.60 597 $12,297.46 $12,237.99 +$746.43
(+6.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 2:50am ET $14.73 831 $12,237.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 2:50am ET $17.09 831 $14,198.73 $14,132.64 +$1,894.65
(+15.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,132.64
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,132.64
Total Return: +41.33%
Back to Crasher Macro