Compendium › Crasher Macro › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher Macro's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 09:50:00+00 • 19 trades executed

-2.44%
2 Years Return
$10,917.75
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$11,190.59
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:52:53

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
56.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
54.5/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,359
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,190.59
Current Value
$10,917.75
Total P&L
$-272.84
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
11
Winners / Losers
5 / 6
Best Trade
+7.72%
Worst Trade
-6.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.15%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$222,125.12
Estimated Fees
$555.31
Gross P&L
$-272.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-828.15
Gross Return
-2.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.40%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher Macro had $11,190.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 3, 2024 9:55pm ET $58,540.29 0 $11,190.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 5, 2024 9:55pm ET $56,223.37 0 $10,747.69 $10,692.84 $-497.75
(-4.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 10:55am ET $63,096.76 0 $10,692.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2024 10:55am ET $59,539.23 0 $10,089.95 $10,038.00 $-654.84
(-6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2024 8:55pm ET $56,142.48 0 $10,038.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2024 8:55pm ET $56,296.37 0 $10,065.51 $10,015.26 $-22.74
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2024 9:00pm ET $55,648.66 0 $10,015.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 5, 2024 9:00pm ET $56,023.69 0 $10,082.76 $10,032.51 +$17.25
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 6, 2024 10:10am ET $55,079.26 0 $10,032.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2024 10:10am ET $54,126.54 0 $9,858.98 $9,809.25 $-223.26
(-2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET $100,151.98 0 $9,809.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 3:40pm ET $96,642.51 0 $9,465.52 $9,417.33 $-391.92
(-4.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 10:10am ET $80,113.79 0 $9,417.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 10:10am ET $82,448.32 0 $9,691.75 $9,643.98 +$226.65
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2025 5:10pm ET $84,521.10 0 $9,643.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 5:10pm ET $84,154.71 0 $9,602.17 $9,554.06 $-89.92
(-0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 3:00am ET $74,472.80 0 $9,554.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:00am ET $77,418.04 0 $9,931.90 $9,883.19 +$329.13
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 11:45am ET $78,658.01 0 $9,883.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 12, 2025 11:45am ET $85,125.10 0 $10,695.76 $10,644.32 +$761.13
(+7.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:50pm ET $106,316.94 0 $10,644.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 1:50pm ET $109,587.74 0 $10,971.79 $10,917.75 +$273.43
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,917.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$917.75
Total Return: +9.18%
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