Compendium › Crasher › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+15.32%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,276.54
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$12,317.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:19:48

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 66%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
8.0/10
Raw Quality 45.4/100
× Confidence 0.66 = 30.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (66%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,828
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,317.78
Current Value
$14,276.54
Period P&L
$1,887.57
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Sharpe Ratio
18.91

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+4.35%
Worst Trade
-1.73%
Avg Trade Return
+1.70%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$110,292.04
Estimated Fees
$275.73
Gross P&L
$1,887.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,611.84
Gross Return
+15.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.09%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $12,317.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET $67,456.00 0 $13,362.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 10:20am ET $69,271.31 0 $13,722.13 $12,609.67 +$291.89
(+2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $65,896.21 0 $13,654.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 2:55pm ET $67,521.99 0 $13,991.30 $12,877.44 +$267.77
(+2.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET $65,561.10 0 $13,922.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 8:05pm ET $64,427.50 0 $13,681.47 $13,681.47 $-309.73
(-1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:50am ET $63,400.00 0 $13,681.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:50am ET $66,157.60 0 $14,276.54 $14,276.54 +$525.18
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,276.54
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,276.54
Total Return: +42.77%
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