Compendium › Crasher › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 1 trades in period

+0.12%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,364.83
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$14,137.64
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 04:46:39

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
8.1/10
Raw Quality 46.3/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 38.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,602
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,137.64
Current Value
$14,364.83
Period P&L
$16.68
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
1
Winners / Losers
1 / 0
Best Trade
+0.62%
Worst Trade
+0.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$28,641.37
Estimated Fees
$71.60
Gross P&L
$16.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-54.92
Gross Return
+0.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.39%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 1 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $14,137.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $61,383.90 0 $14,276.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 2:20am ET $61,763.50 0 $14,364.83 $14,364.83 +$16.68
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,364.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,364.83
Total Return: +43.65%
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