BTCUSD Crasher's Analysis
2024-01-03 11:55:00+00 to 2026-05-06 09:50:00+00 • 45 trades executed
+33.62%
2 Years Return
$14,276.54
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,580.75
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 66%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
8.0/10
Raw Quality
45.4/100
× Confidence 0.66
= 30.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (66%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,359
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,580.75
Current Value
$14,276.54
Total P&L
$3,556.89
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
20 /
14
Best Trade
+7.72%
Worst Trade
-6.14%
Avg Trade Return
+0.95%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$769,775.46
Estimated Fees
$1,924.44
Gross P&L
$3,556.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,632.45
Gross Return
+33.62%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.43%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $10,580.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2024 10:50am ET | $61,033.75 | 0 | $10,580.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2024 10:50am ET | $61,141.67 | 0 | $10,599.46 | $10,546.51 |
$-34.24 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2024 9:55pm ET | $58,540.29 | 0 | $10,546.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 5, 2024 9:55pm ET | $56,223.37 | 0 | $10,129.10 | $10,077.41 |
$-469.10 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2024 10:30am ET | $55,333.74 | 0 | $10,077.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2024 10:30am ET | $57,762.36 | 0 | $10,519.71 | $10,468.22 |
+$390.81 (+3.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 10:55am ET | $63,096.76 | 0 | $10,468.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2024 10:55am ET | $59,539.23 | 0 | $9,878.00 | $9,827.13 |
$-641.09 (-6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2024 8:55pm ET | $56,142.48 | 0 | $9,827.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2024 8:55pm ET | $56,296.37 | 0 | $9,854.07 | $9,804.86 |
$-22.27 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2024 6:05pm ET | $59,526.13 | 0 | $9,804.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2024 6:05pm ET | $58,900.31 | 0 | $9,701.78 | $9,653.01 |
$-151.85 (-1.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2024 9:00pm ET | $55,648.66 | 0 | $9,653.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2024 9:00pm ET | $56,023.69 | 0 | $9,718.06 | $9,669.64 |
+$16.63 (+0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 6, 2024 10:10am ET | $55,079.26 | 0 | $9,669.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2024 10:10am ET | $54,126.54 | 0 | $9,502.38 | $9,454.45 |
$-215.19 (-2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2024 10:55am ET | $65,364.45 | 0 | $9,454.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 10:55am ET | $67,090.61 | 0 | $9,704.13 | $9,656.23 |
+$201.78 (+2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 7:15pm ET | $86,688.00 | 0 | $9,656.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 7:15pm ET | $90,167.00 | 0 | $10,043.76 | $9,994.51 |
+$338.28 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 10:30am ET | $88,788.00 | 0 | $9,994.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 16, 2024 10:30am ET | $90,463.30 | 0 | $10,183.09 | $10,132.65 |
+$138.14 (+1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 5:25pm ET | $93,768.00 | 0 | $10,132.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 7, 2024 5:25pm ET | $99,999.90 | 0 | $10,806.07 | $10,753.73 |
+$621.08 (+6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $100,151.98 | 0 | $10,753.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 3:40pm ET | $96,642.51 | 0 | $10,376.90 | $10,324.08 |
$-429.65 (-4.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 10:40am ET | $97,519.68 | 0 | $10,324.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2025 10:40am ET | $93,883.33 | 0 | $9,939.11 | $9,888.45 |
$-435.63 (-4.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 19, 2025 6:15pm ET | $100,441.90 | 0 | $9,888.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 6:15pm ET | $106,044.55 | 0 | $10,440.03 | $10,389.21 |
+$500.76 (+5.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $93,343.30 | 0 | $10,389.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 8:45pm ET | $98,197.59 | 0 | $10,929.50 | $10,876.20 |
+$486.99 (+4.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $86,452.73 | 0 | $10,876.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2025 10:25am ET | $85,589.39 | 0 | $10,767.59 | $10,713.48 |
$-162.72 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2025 8:30pm ET | $81,436.20 | 0 | $10,713.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2025 8:30pm ET | $86,100.69 | 0 | $11,327.13 | $11,272.02 |
+$558.54 (+5.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $90,147.72 | 0 | $11,272.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 9:50am ET | $88,857.94 | 0 | $11,110.75 | $11,054.79 |
$-217.23 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 7:20pm ET | $87,350.02 | 0 | $11,054.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 8, 2025 7:20pm ET | $86,317.04 | 0 | $10,924.06 | $10,869.11 |
$-185.68 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $80,113.79 | 0 | $10,869.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $82,448.32 | 0 | $11,185.84 | $11,130.70 |
+$261.59 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 5:10pm ET | $84,521.10 | 0 | $11,130.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 5:10pm ET | $84,154.71 | 0 | $11,082.45 | $11,026.92 |
$-103.78 (-0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 3:00am ET | $74,472.80 | 0 | $11,026.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 3:00am ET | $77,418.04 | 0 | $11,463.01 | $11,406.79 |
+$379.87 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $78,658.01 | 0 | $11,406.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 12, 2025 11:45am ET | $85,125.10 | 0 | $12,344.63 | $12,285.25 |
+$878.46 (+7.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 1:50pm ET | $106,316.94 | 0 | $12,285.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 1:50pm ET | $109,587.74 | 0 | $12,663.20 | $12,600.83 |
+$315.58 (+2.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $112,340.00 | 0 | $12,600.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 12, 2025 5:10pm ET | $115,481.70 | 0 | $12,953.22 | $12,889.34 |
+$288.51 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 30, 2025 7:40pm ET | $87,744.40 | 0 | $12,889.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 7:40pm ET | $91,449.00 | 0 | $13,433.53 | $13,367.73 |
+$478.39 (+3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $86,680.30 | 0 | $13,367.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $89,721.80 | 0 | $13,836.79 | $13,768.78 |
+$401.05 (+3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $85,205.19 | 0 | $13,768.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $81,134.00 | 0 | $13,110.89 | $13,043.69 |
$-725.09 (-5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:35pm ET | $74,543.62 | 0 | $13,043.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35pm ET | $76,744.01 | 0 | $13,428.72 | $13,362.53 |
+$318.84 (+2.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $67,456.00 | 0 | $13,362.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $69,271.31 | 0 | $13,722.13 | $13,654.42 |
+$291.89 (+2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $65,896.21 | 0 | $13,654.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $67,521.99 | 0 | $13,991.30 | $13,922.19 |
+$267.77 (+2.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET | $65,561.10 | 0 | $13,922.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:05pm ET | $64,427.50 | 0 | $13,681.47 | $13,681.47 |
$-309.73 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:50am ET | $63,400.00 | 0 | $13,681.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:50am ET | $66,157.60 | 0 | $14,276.54 | $14,276.54 |
+$525.18 (+4.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,276.54
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,276.54
Total Return:
+42.77%