Compendium › Danny Dip › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.78%
Last Month Return
$16,107.44
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$16,916.76
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:25:22

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.5/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 30.8/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 29.7

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.8%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,517
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$16,916.76
Current Value
$16,107.44
Period P&L
$-809.38
Max Drawdown
-28.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.38%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
-1.15%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$136,195.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-809.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-809.38
Gross Return
-4.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $16,916.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $5.20 3,253 $16,915.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $5.48 3,253 $17,826.44 $17,827.66 +$910.84
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:45am ET $5.59 3,186 $17,825.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $5.38 3,186 $17,140.68 $17,142.67 $-684.99
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:05am ET $5.89 2,908 $17,142.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $5.72 2,908 $16,619.22 $16,619.23 $-523.44
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $5.34 3,115 $16,618.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $5.17 3,115 $16,106.73 $16,107.44 $-511.79
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,107.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,107.44
Total Return: +61.07%
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