Compendium › Danny Dip › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-5.32%
Last Month Return
$3,587.30
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$3,789.08
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:29:13

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 2.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,518
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$3,789.08
Current Value
$3,587.30
Period P&L
$-201.75
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.31%
Worst Trade
-3.80%
Avg Trade Return
-1.29%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$29,140.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-201.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-201.75
Gross Return
-5.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,789.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:55am ET $17.74 213 $3,778.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:45am ET $17.18 213 $3,660.40 $3,670.83 $-118.22
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $16.55 221 $3,657.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $15.92 221 $3,518.52 $3,531.80 $-139.03
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET $14.51 243 $3,525.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET $15.28 243 $3,713.04 $3,718.93 +$187.13
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 230 $3,709.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET $15.56 230 $3,577.65 $3,587.30 $-131.63
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,587.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,412.70
Total Return: -64.13%
Back to Danny Dip