Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:27:47

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 18.0/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 15.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-9.6%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,518
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,773.44
Current Value
$10,764.93
Period P&L
$-1,008.53
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.54

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.04%
Worst Trade
-5.09%
Avg Trade Return
-1.93%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$111,663.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,008.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,008.53
Gross Return
-8.57%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.57%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,773.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $143.39 83 $11,901.44
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $136.09 83 $11,295.47 $11,296.20 $-605.97
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $131.43 85 $11,171.55
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:10am ET $127.13 85 $10,806.05 $10,930.70 $-365.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $134.00 81 $10,854.00
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET $140.75 81 $11,400.75 $11,477.45 +$546.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET $131.40 87 $11,432.23
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $127.03 87 $11,051.61 $11,096.83 $-380.63
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $120.01 92 $11,040.92
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:05am ET $116.40 92 $10,709.02 $10,764.93 $-331.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,764.93
Net Profit/Loss: +$764.93
Total Return: +7.65%
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