TQQQ Danny Dip's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 47 trades in period
+109.07%
Last Year Return
$16,815.44
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$8,043.02
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
30.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 30.4
30-Day Momentum
54
+25.7%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 88.7
Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
41,014
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$8,043.02
Current Value
$16,815.44
Period P&L
$8,772.40
Max Drawdown
-40.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.33
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
26 /
21
Best Trade
+13.96%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
+1.66%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,171,902.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,772.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,772.40
Gross Return
+109.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+109.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $8,043.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.05 | 282 | $8,190.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 9:45am ET | $28.04 | 282 | $7,907.93 | $7,935.11 |
$-282.76 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 2:05pm ET | $27.65 | 287 | $7,934.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.40 | 287 | $8,436.37 | $8,436.64 |
+$501.53 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $29.24 | 288 | $8,421.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.42 | 288 | $9,337.31 | $9,352.10 |
+$915.47 (+10.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.46 | 271 | $9,337.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.84 | 271 | $8,898.96 | $8,913.08 |
$-439.02 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 12:30pm ET | $33.76 | 264 | $8,912.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 1:05pm ET | $35.50 | 264 | $9,373.21 | $9,373.66 |
+$460.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2025 12:55pm ET | $36.60 | 256 | $9,368.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 10:30am ET | $38.43 | 256 | $9,837.62 | $9,842.96 |
+$469.30 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:55am ET | $36.77 | 267 | $9,817.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $38.66 | 267 | $10,321.55 | $10,346.92 |
+$503.96 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 10:55am ET | $40.42 | 256 | $10,346.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 11:10am ET | $42.48 | 256 | $10,875.29 | $10,875.97 |
+$529.05 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $42.84 | 253 | $10,838.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 9:50am ET | $44.98 | 253 | $11,380.57 | $11,418.02 |
+$542.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 2:10pm ET | $44.10 | 258 | $11,377.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.20 | 258 | $10,886.31 | $10,926.53 |
$-491.49 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $42.85 | 255 | $10,926.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.51 | 255 | $11,605.69 | $11,606.11 |
+$679.58 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 10:55am ET | $45.09 | 257 | $11,587.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $43.49 | 257 | $11,176.93 | $11,195.55 |
$-410.56 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2025 9:45am ET | $45.08 | 248 | $11,179.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.45 | 248 | $10,526.36 | $10,542.07 |
$-653.48 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2025 10:35am ET | $45.48 | 231 | $10,505.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 10:35am ET | $47.79 | 231 | $11,040.07 | $11,076.26 |
+$534.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $49.07 | 225 | $11,040.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $51.53 | 225 | $11,594.27 | $11,629.78 |
+$553.52 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.53 | 221 | $11,609.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $50.60 | 221 | $11,181.50 | $11,202.14 |
$-427.64 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $49.38 | 226 | $11,159.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 9:50am ET | $51.93 | 226 | $11,735.80 | $11,778.06 |
+$575.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 12:25pm ET | $51.31 | 229 | $11,748.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $53.91 | 229 | $12,345.39 | $12,374.60 |
+$596.54 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 11:25am ET | $52.21 | 237 | $12,372.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.14 | 237 | $13,068.18 | $13,070.20 |
+$695.60 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $58.17 | 224 | $13,030.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $56.23 | 224 | $12,595.52 | $12,635.08 |
$-435.12 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:50am ET | $55.42 | 228 | $12,634.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:55am ET | $53.75 | 228 | $12,253.86 | $12,254.32 |
$-380.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:55am ET | $50.70 | 241 | $12,218.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.43 | 241 | $13,358.63 | $13,394.25 |
+$1,139.93 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $54.03 | 247 | $13,346.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:15pm ET | $52.41 | 247 | $12,944.04 | $12,992.26 |
$-401.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 11:15am ET | $51.49 | 252 | $12,974.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $49.60 | 252 | $12,497.94 | $12,515.90 |
$-476.36 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $49.78 | 251 | $12,494.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.82 | 251 | $13,257.79 | $13,278.92 |
+$763.01 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $46.46 | 285 | $13,241.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 2:05pm ET | $48.83 | 285 | $13,916.55 | $13,953.51 |
+$674.59 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $49.26 | 283 | $13,940.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:30pm ET | $51.78 | 283 | $14,652.33 | $14,665.68 |
+$712.17 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.18 | 265 | $14,622.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $53.04 | 265 | $14,054.28 | $14,097.26 |
$-568.43 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET | $50.97 | 276 | $14,066.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $49.39 | 276 | $13,631.64 | $13,662.56 |
$-434.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $52.93 | 258 | $13,656.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $55.62 | 258 | $14,348.82 | $14,355.29 |
+$692.73 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.87 | 266 | $14,328.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.05 | 266 | $13,844.79 | $13,871.33 |
$-483.96 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $51.14 | 271 | $13,858.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $53.72 | 271 | $14,556.77 | $14,569.15 |
+$697.83 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.19 | 263 | $14,514.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $53.50 | 263 | $14,070.08 | $14,124.26 |
$-444.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.58 | 263 | $14,091.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $51.97 | 263 | $13,668.11 | $13,700.83 |
$-423.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.84 | 280 | $13,675.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.14 | 280 | $13,199.20 | $13,224.83 |
$-476.00 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.72 | 277 | $13,218.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $50.14 | 277 | $13,888.75 | $13,895.14 |
+$670.31 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $48.31 | 287 | $13,864.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.99 | 287 | $14,635.56 | $14,665.73 |
+$770.59 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $49.74 | 294 | $14,623.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.47 | 294 | $13,956.47 | $13,998.64 |
$-667.09 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.80 | 299 | $13,993.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.16 | 299 | $14,698.84 | $14,704.28 |
+$705.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $48.56 | 302 | $14,665.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.31 | 302 | $13,985.62 | $14,024.78 |
$-679.50 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $47.94 | 292 | $13,998.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $46.49 | 292 | $13,575.08 | $13,601.38 |
$-423.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 303 | $13,559.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $43.22 | 303 | $13,097.17 | $13,139.30 |
$-462.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.85 | 299 | $13,109.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $42.43 | 299 | $12,686.33 | $12,715.98 |
$-423.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 309 | $12,675.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $43.15 | 309 | $13,334.89 | $13,375.69 |
+$659.71 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $42.78 | 312 | $13,346.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 312 | $15,210.00 | $15,239.05 |
+$1,863.36 (+14.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $58.58 | 260 | $15,232.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $61.55 | 260 | $16,003.29 | $16,010.24 |
+$771.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.58 | 264 | $15,993.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:15pm ET | $63.63 | 264 | $16,798.32 | $16,815.44 |
+$805.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,815.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,815.44
Total Return:
+68.15%