TSLA Danny Dip's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 36 trades in period
+77.36%
Last Year Return
$13,978.33
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$7,881.49
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
27.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 26.8
30-Day Momentum
0
-2.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
41,110
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,881.49
Current Value
$13,978.33
Period P&L
$6,096.86
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
21 /
15
Best Trade
+7.94%
Worst Trade
-5.44%
Avg Trade Return
+1.72%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$845,315.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,096.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,096.86
Gross Return
+77.36%
Net Return (after fees)
+77.36%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $7,881.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:45am ET | $274.39 | 28 | $7,682.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 11:40am ET | $289.49 | 28 | $8,105.58 | $8,304.13 |
+$422.66 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $338.81 | 24 | $8,131.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 10:05am ET | $355.96 | 24 | $8,542.92 | $8,715.63 |
+$411.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 12:30pm ET | $350.88 | 24 | $8,421.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $339.52 | 24 | $8,148.48 | $8,442.95 |
$-272.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $338.17 | 24 | $8,116.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $319.77 | 24 | $7,674.53 | $8,001.40 |
$-441.55 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $284.88 | 28 | $7,976.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 1:50pm ET | $300.34 | 28 | $8,409.52 | $8,434.40 |
+$433.01 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 10:20am ET | $319.04 | 26 | $8,295.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 9:45am ET | $338.24 | 26 | $8,794.24 | $8,933.60 |
+$499.20 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $332.75 | 26 | $8,651.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 10:20am ET | $321.84 | 26 | $8,367.84 | $8,649.87 |
$-283.73 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $295.61 | 29 | $8,572.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2025 10:15am ET | $311.05 | 29 | $9,020.54 | $9,097.80 |
+$447.93 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $290.80 | 31 | $9,014.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $307.46 | 31 | $9,531.26 | $9,614.26 |
+$516.46 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $304.93 | 31 | $9,452.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 11:45am ET | $320.61 | 31 | $9,938.91 | $10,100.32 |
+$486.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:55am ET | $300.32 | 33 | $9,910.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 9:45am ET | $316.01 | 33 | $10,428.47 | $10,618.23 |
+$517.91 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $319.86 | 33 | $10,555.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2025 10:30am ET | $335.88 | 33 | $11,084.04 | $11,147.05 |
+$528.82 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 2:35pm ET | $404.33 | 27 | $10,916.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 3:20pm ET | $425.85 | 27 | $11,497.95 | $11,728.07 |
+$581.02 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $426.80 | 27 | $11,523.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.22 | 27 | $12,128.94 | $12,333.42 |
+$605.34 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 10:30am ET | $452.08 | 27 | $12,206.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 3:50pm ET | $436.22 | 27 | $11,777.94 | $11,905.20 |
$-428.21 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 3:10pm ET | $434.98 | 27 | $11,744.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $417.24 | 27 | $11,265.48 | $11,426.36 |
$-478.85 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $422.70 | 27 | $11,412.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 9:40am ET | $444.73 | 27 | $12,007.82 | $12,021.28 |
+$594.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $416.54 | 28 | $11,663.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 12:35pm ET | $438.95 | 28 | $12,290.60 | $12,648.88 |
+$627.60 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:15am ET | $446.02 | 28 | $12,488.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $470.39 | 28 | $13,171.03 | $13,331.43 |
+$682.55 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $454.07 | 29 | $13,168.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $437.87 | 29 | $12,698.12 | $12,861.54 |
$-469.89 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $418.65 | 30 | $12,559.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 11:15am ET | $405.33 | 30 | $12,159.90 | $12,461.94 |
$-399.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $396.39 | 31 | $12,288.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $419.17 | 31 | $12,994.27 | $13,168.12 |
+$706.18 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:25am ET | $388.21 | 33 | $12,810.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $409.39 | 33 | $13,509.87 | $13,867.18 |
+$699.06 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:55am ET | $440.05 | 31 | $13,641.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $474.97 | 31 | $14,724.07 | $14,949.70 |
+$1,082.52 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $478.17 | 31 | $14,823.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:55am ET | $462.73 | 31 | $14,344.63 | $14,471.06 |
$-478.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.93 | 32 | $14,077.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $426.23 | 32 | $13,639.36 | $14,032.66 |
$-438.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $425.42 | 32 | $13,613.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:05pm ET | $447.95 | 32 | $14,334.40 | $14,753.59 |
+$720.93 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $419.81 | 35 | $14,693.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $405.00 | 35 | $14,175.00 | $14,235.24 |
$-518.35 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $408.07 | 34 | $13,874.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $394.74 | 34 | $13,421.33 | $13,782.19 |
$-453.05 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $390.52 | 35 | $13,668.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $411.71 | 35 | $14,409.85 | $14,523.84 |
+$741.65 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $394.96 | 36 | $14,218.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $381.09 | 36 | $13,719.24 | $14,024.52 |
$-499.32 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $372.52 | 37 | $13,783.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 37 | $14,578.00 | $14,819.28 |
+$794.76 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $364.36 | 40 | $14,574.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $353.20 | 40 | $14,128.00 | $14,372.88 |
$-446.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 39 | $14,211.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $353.29 | 39 | $13,778.31 | $13,939.99 |
$-432.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $392.41 | 35 | $13,734.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 35 | $13,079.15 | $13,284.79 |
$-655.20 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $364.81 | 36 | $13,133.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $384.08 | 36 | $13,826.70 | $13,978.33 |
+$693.54 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,978.33
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,978.33
Total Return:
+39.78%