Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 03:57:49

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 6.0/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 4.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,920.16
Current Value
$8,252.66
Period P&L
$-667.50
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.46

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.01%
Worst Trade
-3.26%
Avg Trade Return
-1.51%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$85,269.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-667.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$-667.50
Gross Return
-7.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $8,920.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 1:10pm ET $205.86 43 $8,851.98
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:55am ET $199.39 43 $8,573.77 $8,641.95 $-278.21
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $191.37 45 $8,611.43
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET $185.59 45 $8,351.33 $8,381.85 $-260.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $181.86 46 $8,365.56
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET $190.97 46 $8,784.62 $8,800.91 +$419.06
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
4 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $185.77 47 $8,731.19
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:30am ET $179.72 47 $8,446.84 $8,516.56 $-284.35
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $178.90 47 $8,408.30
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET $173.29 47 $8,144.40 $8,252.66 $-263.90
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,252.66
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,747.34
Total Return: -17.47%
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