Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:28:35

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 2.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,160.48
Current Value
$3,587.30
Period P&L
$-573.15
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
4 / 9
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.86%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$100,661.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-573.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-573.15
Gross Return
-13.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $4,160.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.04 269 $4,045.73
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $15.84 269 $4,260.96 $4,274.78 +$215.23
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET $15.88 269 $4,270.38
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $15.38 269 $4,137.22 $4,141.63 $-133.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $15.16 273 $4,140.04
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET $14.66 273 $4,002.18 $4,003.76 $-137.87
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET $15.98 250 $3,995.00
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET $16.78 250 $4,194.97 $4,203.74 +$199.98
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET $17.16 244 $4,187.04
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET $16.62 244 $4,055.04 $4,071.74 $-132.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET $16.28 250 $4,070.00
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.47 250 $3,867.50 $3,869.24 $-202.50
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $14.70 263 $3,866.07
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:25am ET $14.21 263 $3,737.23 $3,740.40 $-128.84
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.06 266 $3,738.63
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $13.48 266 $3,585.68 $3,587.45 $-152.95
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $12.80 280 $3,582.60
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $13.52 280 $3,784.20 $3,789.05 +$201.60
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:55am ET $17.74 213 $3,778.62
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:45am ET $17.18 213 $3,660.40 $3,670.83 $-118.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $16.55 221 $3,657.55
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $15.92 221 $3,518.52 $3,531.80 $-139.03
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET $14.51 243 $3,525.91
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET $15.28 243 $3,713.04 $3,718.93 +$187.13
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 230 $3,709.28
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET $15.56 230 $3,577.65 $3,587.30 $-131.63
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,587.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,412.70
Total Return: -64.13%
Back to Danny Dip