AVAXUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 48 trades in period
-52.82%
Last 6 Months Return
$248.68
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$493.28
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.8/10
Raw Quality
1.8/100
× Confidence 0.94
= 1.7
30-Day Momentum
29
+7.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.1
Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
52,272
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
182 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$493.28
Current Value
$248.68
Period P&L
$-260.57
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.25
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
13 /
35
Best Trade
+5.93%
Worst Trade
-4.81%
Avg Trade Return
-0.98%
Avg Hold Time
21h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$30,198.01
Estimated Fees
$75.50
Gross P&L
$-260.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$-336.07
Gross Return
-52.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-68.13%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 182 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $493.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:35am ET | $17.17 | 29 | $493.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 12:10pm ET | $16.64 | 29 | $478.02 | $475.59 |
$-17.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 12:40pm ET | $16.49 | 29 | $475.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 2:55pm ET | $15.98 | 29 | $460.89 | $458.54 |
$-17.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 11:35pm ET | $15.41 | 30 | $458.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 6:05pm ET | $14.92 | 30 | $443.96 | $441.71 |
$-16.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 16, 2025 12:00pm ET | $14.83 | 30 | $441.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 16, 2025 10:10pm ET | $15.65 | 30 | $466.07 | $463.80 |
+$22.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:05am ET | $15.16 | 31 | $463.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 1:25pm ET | $14.66 | 31 | $448.38 | $446.10 |
$-17.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 1:30pm ET | $14.62 | 31 | $446.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 8:50pm ET | $14.14 | 31 | $431.34 | $429.14 |
$-16.96 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 12:40am ET | $13.94 | 31 | $429.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $13.52 | 31 | $416.21 | $414.10 |
$-15.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:20pm ET | $13.65 | 30 | $414.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 2:30am ET | $13.06 | 30 | $396.20 | $394.18 |
$-19.92 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 2:35am ET | $13.13 | 30 | $394.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 7:20am ET | $12.68 | 30 | $380.67 | $378.73 |
$-15.45 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 7:25am ET | $12.66 | 30 | $378.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 12:00pm ET | $13.31 | 30 | $398.17 | $396.23 |
+$17.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 30, 2025 7:05pm ET | $13.48 | 29 | $396.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 30, 2025 10:05pm ET | $13.03 | 29 | $383.01 | $381.06 |
$-15.18 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:40am ET | $13.37 | 29 | $381.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:40am ET | $14.06 | 29 | $400.72 | $398.77 |
+$17.71 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 4:30pm ET | $14.29 | 28 | $398.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 7:45pm ET | $13.82 | 28 | $385.65 | $383.69 |
$-15.08 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 8:05pm ET | $13.76 | 28 | $383.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:05pm ET | $13.31 | 28 | $371.14 | $369.26 |
$-14.44 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:30am ET | $13.19 | 28 | $369.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $12.74 | 28 | $356.74 | $354.93 |
$-14.33 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:05am ET | $12.78 | 28 | $354.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 12:10pm ET | $12.38 | 28 | $343.82 | $342.07 |
$-12.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $12.15 | 28 | $342.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $11.77 | 28 | $331.37 | $329.69 |
$-12.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET | $11.78 | 28 | $329.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 2:35pm ET | $11.40 | 28 | $319.03 | $317.41 |
$-12.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 2:40pm ET | $11.36 | 28 | $317.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 2:05am ET | $11.95 | 28 | $333.89 | $332.26 |
+$14.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:50pm ET | $14.29 | 23 | $332.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:55am ET | $13.78 | 23 | $320.40 | $318.77 |
$-13.49 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.83 | 23 | $318.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.41 | 23 | $309.09 | $307.52 |
$-11.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $13.30 | 23 | $307.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $12.66 | 23 | $292.72 | $291.22 |
$-16.30 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $12.63 | 23 | $291.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $12.19 | 23 | $281.08 | $279.65 |
$-11.58 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $11.92 | 23 | $279.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $12.56 | 23 | $294.66 | $293.23 |
+$13.58 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $11.16 | 26 | $293.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.82 | 26 | $284.29 | $282.85 |
$-10.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $10.08 | 28 | $282.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.76 | 28 | $273.87 | $272.48 |
$-10.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET | $9.82 | 28 | $272.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:15am ET | $9.52 | 28 | $264.15 | $262.81 |
$-9.67 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:20am ET | $9.21 | 29 | $262.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.88 | 29 | $253.40 | $252.10 |
$-10.71 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $8.94 | 28 | $252.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $8.67 | 28 | $244.49 | $243.25 |
$-8.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $8.52 | 29 | $243.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 4:15pm ET | $8.26 | 29 | $235.83 | $234.63 |
$-8.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 4:20pm ET | $8.44 | 28 | $234.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 28 | $225.27 | $224.12 |
$-10.51 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 29 | $224.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $8.23 | 29 | $236.96 | $235.80 |
+$11.69 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:40pm ET | $8.20 | 29 | $235.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $8.61 | 29 | $247.65 | $246.45 |
+$10.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $8.34 | 30 | $246.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:10am ET | $8.76 | 30 | $258.86 | $257.59 |
+$11.15 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $9.12 | 28 | $257.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 5:15am ET | $8.82 | 28 | $249.03 | $247.77 |
$-9.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $8.51 | 29 | $247.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:25am ET | $8.21 | 29 | $239.04 | $239.04 |
$-9.95 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET | $9.42 | 25 | $239.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $9.12 | 25 | $231.43 | $231.43 |
$-8.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $8.60 | 27 | $231.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $9.11 | 27 | $245.15 | $245.15 |
+$12.53 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 8, 2026 6:00pm ET | $8.72 | 28 | $245.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:40am ET | $9.18 | 28 | $258.08 | $258.08 |
+$11.67 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.7h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $9.65 | 27 | $258.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 8:45am ET | $10.15 | 27 | $271.45 | $271.45 |
+$12.05 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $9.89 | 27 | $271.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 14, 2026 2:35am ET | $9.59 | 27 | $263.22 | $263.22 |
$-9.57 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:00am ET | $9.91 | 27 | $263.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.60 | 27 | $254.99 | $254.99 |
$-9.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2026 7:55pm ET | $9.22 | 28 | $254.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 5:15pm ET | $8.93 | 28 | $246.97 | $246.97 |
$-9.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $9.37 | 26 | $246.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $9.06 | 26 | $238.80 | $238.80 |
$-9.39 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35pm ET | $8.89 | 27 | $238.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.62 | 27 | $231.55 | $231.55 |
$-8.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.98 | 26 | $231.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:55pm ET | $8.70 | 26 | $224.33 | $224.33 |
$-8.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET | $9.04 | 25 | $224.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:20pm ET | $9.50 | 25 | $235.75 | $235.75 |
+$10.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $9.30 | 25 | $235.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $9.81 | 25 | $248.68 | $248.68 |
+$11.72 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$248.68
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,751.32
Total Return:
-97.51%