MRNA Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 36 trades in period
+33.59%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,341.87
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$5,495.65
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
5.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 5.6
30-Day Momentum
34
+10.8%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.9
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,764
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,495.65
Current Value
$7,341.87
Period P&L
$1,846.23
Max Drawdown
-66.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
17 /
19
Best Trade
+6.32%
Worst Trade
-3.80%
Avg Trade Return
+0.90%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$454,060.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,846.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,846.23
Gross Return
+33.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+33.59%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $5,495.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $24.01 | 228 | $5,474.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $25.31 | 228 | $5,770.68 | $5,792.05 |
+$296.40 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $25.81 | 224 | $5,780.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:55pm ET | $25.01 | 224 | $5,601.12 | $5,612.85 |
$-179.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $23.97 | 234 | $5,607.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET | $23.20 | 234 | $5,428.80 | $5,433.84 |
$-179.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $24.94 | 217 | $5,411.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $24.18 | 217 | $5,247.28 | $5,269.13 |
$-164.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.96 | 181 | $5,241.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $30.59 | 181 | $5,536.79 | $5,564.16 |
+$295.03 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 3:50pm ET | $31.03 | 179 | $5,553.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $32.80 | 179 | $5,871.20 | $5,881.89 |
+$317.73 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:55am ET | $34.16 | 172 | $5,875.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:50am ET | $33.11 | 172 | $5,694.92 | $5,701.29 |
$-180.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.76 | 179 | $5,685.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $30.81 | 179 | $5,514.35 | $5,530.59 |
$-170.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.74 | 159 | $5,523.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $36.50 | 159 | $5,802.71 | $5,809.64 |
+$279.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.28 | 174 | $5,790.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.32 | 174 | $6,144.81 | $6,163.73 |
+$354.09 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $40.26 | 153 | $6,159.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $42.50 | 153 | $6,502.50 | $6,506.91 |
+$343.18 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $53.24 | 122 | $6,495.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $51.39 | 122 | $6,269.09 | $6,280.72 |
$-226.19 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.17 | 133 | $6,273.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.15 | 133 | $6,669.86 | $6,676.97 |
+$396.25 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.61 | 149 | $6,646.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.91 | 149 | $6,989.59 | $7,019.67 |
+$342.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.38 | 154 | $6,988.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $43.96 | 154 | $6,769.84 | $6,800.99 |
$-218.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.19 | 157 | $6,780.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $41.75 | 157 | $6,554.75 | $6,575.69 |
$-225.30 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $42.00 | 156 | $6,552.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $40.73 | 156 | $6,353.88 | $6,377.57 |
$-198.12 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $43.83 | 145 | $6,354.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $42.31 | 145 | $6,134.95 | $6,157.87 |
$-219.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $43.56 | 141 | $6,141.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $42.20 | 141 | $5,950.20 | $5,966.82 |
$-191.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $46.18 | 129 | $5,957.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $48.49 | 129 | $6,255.21 | $6,264.81 |
+$297.99 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $52.02 | 120 | $6,242.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $50.33 | 120 | $6,040.20 | $6,062.61 |
$-202.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:40am ET | $51.70 | 117 | $6,048.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $54.35 | 117 | $6,358.95 | $6,372.66 |
+$310.05 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $53.56 | 118 | $6,320.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $56.47 | 118 | $6,664.05 | $6,716.63 |
+$343.97 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $52.38 | 128 | $6,704.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $50.76 | 128 | $6,497.56 | $6,509.55 |
$-207.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.19 | 122 | $6,489.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.35 | 122 | $6,874.70 | $6,895.03 |
+$385.48 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.98 | 127 | $6,855.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $52.34 | 127 | $6,647.18 | $6,686.60 |
$-208.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.91 | 124 | $6,684.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.06 | 124 | $6,455.44 | $6,457.20 |
$-229.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.60 | 127 | $6,426.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.15 | 127 | $6,749.42 | $6,780.42 |
+$323.22 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 130 | $6,749.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $50.17 | 130 | $6,522.10 | $6,552.92 |
$-227.50 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:00pm ET | $48.14 | 136 | $6,547.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $50.59 | 136 | $6,880.24 | $6,885.74 |
+$332.82 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $50.01 | 137 | $6,851.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 137 | $6,591.34 | $6,625.73 |
$-260.01 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.64 | 130 | $6,583.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 130 | $6,988.80 | $7,031.33 |
+$405.60 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.68 | 130 | $6,978.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.96 | 130 | $6,754.98 | $6,807.91 |
$-223.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.19 | 138 | $6,788.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.70 | 138 | $6,582.90 | $6,601.90 |
$-206.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $45.15 | 146 | $6,591.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.74 | 146 | $6,970.04 | $6,980.77 |
+$378.87 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.28 | 157 | $6,951.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.58 | 157 | $7,313.06 | $7,341.87 |
+$361.10 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,341.87
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,658.13
Total Return:
-26.58%