RIVN Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 33 trades in period
-28.87%
Last 6 Months Return
$3,869.24
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$5,439.84
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.8/10
Raw Quality
2.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 2.7
30-Day Momentum
1
-6.6%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,145
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,439.84
Current Value
$3,869.24
Period P&L
$-1,570.57
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
10 /
23
Best Trade
+5.47%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.95%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$311,067.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,570.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,570.57
Gross Return
-28.87%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.87%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $5,439.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.34 | 354 | $5,430.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:50am ET | $14.87 | 354 | $5,262.21 | $5,271.66 |
$-168.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:50am ET | $14.73 | 358 | $5,271.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:25am ET | $15.52 | 358 | $5,556.16 | $5,556.27 |
+$284.61 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.40 | 319 | $5,549.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $16.80 | 319 | $5,357.64 | $5,364.90 |
$-191.37 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET | $17.09 | 314 | $5,364.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:00pm ET | $16.51 | 314 | $5,182.57 | $5,182.78 |
$-182.12 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:15pm ET | $15.31 | 338 | $5,174.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $14.58 | 338 | $4,929.22 | $4,937.22 |
$-245.56 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $14.71 | 335 | $4,927.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.52 | 335 | $5,197.53 | $5,206.90 |
+$269.68 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $14.55 | 357 | $5,194.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $14.06 | 357 | $5,017.64 | $5,030.22 |
$-176.68 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $16.98 | 296 | $5,027.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $17.87 | 296 | $5,288.04 | $5,290.82 |
+$260.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.52 | 302 | $5,290.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.97 | 302 | $5,123.43 | $5,123.99 |
$-166.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET | $18.89 | 271 | $5,117.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 10:15am ET | $18.26 | 271 | $4,948.46 | $4,954.62 |
$-169.38 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:20am ET | $18.46 | 268 | $4,947.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 2:15pm ET | $19.43 | 268 | $5,205.90 | $5,213.24 |
+$258.62 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $21.46 | 242 | $5,193.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:45am ET | $20.77 | 242 | $5,026.34 | $5,046.26 |
$-166.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $20.23 | 249 | $5,037.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $19.43 | 249 | $4,838.07 | $4,847.06 |
$-199.20 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $19.89 | 243 | $4,832.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $19.17 | 243 | $4,658.31 | $4,672.68 |
$-174.38 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $19.20 | 243 | $4,665.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $20.21 | 243 | $4,912.12 | $4,919.20 |
+$246.52 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:30pm ET | $20.14 | 244 | $4,912.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $19.48 | 244 | $4,751.90 | $4,758.16 |
$-161.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.88 | 266 | $4,754.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $17.32 | 266 | $4,605.79 | $4,609.20 |
$-148.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.95 | 289 | $4,608.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.76 | 289 | $4,842.20 | $4,843.29 |
+$234.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.31 | 316 | $4,836.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.84 | 316 | $4,689.44 | $4,696.35 |
$-146.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.30 | 328 | $4,690.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $13.87 | 328 | $4,549.36 | $4,555.31 |
$-141.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 314 | $4,546.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.70 | 314 | $4,617.37 | $4,625.96 |
+$70.65 (+1.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.37 | 266 | $4,620.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.84 | 266 | $4,480.77 | $4,486.31 |
$-139.65 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $16.39 | 273 | $4,473.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.78 | 273 | $4,307.94 | $4,321.14 |
$-165.17 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.10 | 286 | $4,320.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.64 | 286 | $4,187.04 | $4,188.15 |
$-132.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.16 | 276 | $4,184.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.93 | 276 | $4,395.30 | $4,399.29 |
+$211.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.19 | 271 | $4,386.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.68 | 271 | $4,247.93 | $4,261.05 |
$-138.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.36 | 260 | $4,253.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $15.59 | 260 | $4,052.10 | $4,059.55 |
$-201.50 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.04 | 269 | $4,045.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.84 | 269 | $4,260.96 | $4,274.78 |
+$215.23 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.88 | 269 | $4,270.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.38 | 269 | $4,137.22 | $4,141.63 |
$-133.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.16 | 273 | $4,140.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.66 | 273 | $4,002.18 | $4,003.76 |
$-137.87 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.98 | 250 | $3,995.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $16.78 | 250 | $4,194.97 | $4,203.74 |
+$199.98 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.16 | 244 | $4,187.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.62 | 244 | $4,055.04 | $4,071.74 |
$-132.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.28 | 250 | $4,070.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 250 | $3,867.50 | $3,869.24 |
$-202.50 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,869.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,130.76
Total Return:
-61.31%