SMCI Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-08 to present • 38 trades in period
+17.38%
Last 6 Months Return
$5,038.08
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$4,292.13
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.4
Active
⛈️ 3 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored May 8, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
59
+24.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 79.4
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+54 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,071
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-08 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$4,292.13
Current Value
$5,038.08
Period P&L
$745.95
Max Drawdown
-80.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
16 /
22
Best Trade
+13.79%
Worst Trade
-3.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
19.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$292,830.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$745.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$745.95
Gross Return
+17.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.38%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $4,292.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $40.13 | 106 | $4,253.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:15am ET | $38.88 | 106 | $4,121.28 | $4,159.86 |
$-132.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $36.85 | 112 | $4,127.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:50am ET | $35.73 | 112 | $4,001.76 | $4,034.42 |
$-125.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $35.36 | 114 | $4,031.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 1:30pm ET | $34.29 | 114 | $3,908.49 | $3,911.87 |
$-122.55 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $34.52 | 113 | $3,900.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $33.43 | 113 | $3,777.59 | $3,788.70 |
$-123.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $32.30 | 117 | $3,779.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $31.12 | 117 | $3,641.04 | $3,650.64 |
$-138.06 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.36 | 112 | $3,623.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.31 | 112 | $3,506.72 | $3,533.60 |
$-117.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $32.71 | 108 | $3,532.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $34.36 | 108 | $3,710.34 | $3,711.26 |
+$177.66 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $33.74 | 109 | $3,677.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $32.63 | 109 | $3,556.67 | $3,590.26 |
$-121.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $30.76 | 116 | $3,568.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET | $29.83 | 116 | $3,460.29 | $3,482.39 |
$-107.87 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $30.83 | 112 | $3,452.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $29.90 | 112 | $3,348.80 | $3,378.57 |
$-103.82 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $29.20 | 115 | $3,357.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $28.23 | 115 | $3,245.88 | $3,267.02 |
$-111.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.16 | 104 | $3,240.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $32.79 | 104 | $3,409.64 | $3,436.54 |
+$169.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $31.25 | 109 | $3,406.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.93 | 109 | $3,589.37 | $3,619.55 |
+$183.01 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $32.09 | 112 | $3,594.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.88 | 112 | $3,458.56 | $3,483.78 |
$-135.77 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.02 | 116 | $3,482.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.67 | 116 | $3,674.13 | $3,675.59 |
+$191.81 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.51 | 120 | $3,661.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.59 | 120 | $3,550.80 | $3,565.19 |
$-110.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:05pm ET | $29.91 | 119 | $3,558.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:00pm ET | $29.01 | 119 | $3,451.74 | $3,458.23 |
$-106.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $32.52 | 106 | $3,447.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:05pm ET | $34.26 | 106 | $3,631.56 | $3,642.67 |
+$184.44 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $30.36 | 119 | $3,613.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.95 | 119 | $3,921.05 | $3,950.56 |
+$307.89 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $33.40 | 118 | $3,941.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $33.47 | 118 | $3,950.05 | $3,958.82 |
+$8.26 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.67 | 133 | $3,946.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.25 | 133 | $4,156.25 | $4,168.44 |
+$209.62 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $31.80 | 131 | $4,166.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $30.73 | 131 | $4,025.63 | $4,027.67 |
$-140.77 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $32.47 | 124 | $4,026.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $31.32 | 124 | $3,883.68 | $3,885.07 |
$-142.60 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.88 | 125 | $3,860.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $29.94 | 125 | $3,742.50 | $3,767.57 |
$-117.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.17 | 117 | $3,764.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $31.17 | 117 | $3,647.38 | $3,650.48 |
$-117.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.01 | 117 | $3,628.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $32.58 | 117 | $3,811.28 | $3,833.58 |
+$183.11 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.07 | 173 | $3,817.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $21.33 | 173 | $3,690.95 | $3,707.29 |
$-126.29 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.30 | 174 | $3,706.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $22.40 | 174 | $3,896.73 | $3,897.82 |
+$190.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 166 | $3,886.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.65 | 166 | $3,759.90 | $3,771.66 |
$-126.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $21.20 | 177 | $3,753.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET | $22.36 | 177 | $3,957.72 | $3,976.10 |
+$204.44 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $21.95 | 181 | $3,972.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $23.09 | 181 | $4,179.24 | $4,182.39 |
+$206.29 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $22.57 | 185 | $4,175.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.83 | 185 | $4,037.63 | $4,044.57 |
$-137.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $22.97 | 176 | $4,042.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 176 | $4,262.72 | $4,264.57 |
+$220.00 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 160 | $4,241.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.98 | 160 | $4,476.80 | $4,499.77 |
+$235.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.42 | 158 | $4,490.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $27.54 | 158 | $4,351.32 | $4,360.71 |
$-139.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.58 | 164 | $4,359.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $25.66 | 164 | $4,208.24 | $4,209.83 |
$-150.88 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.56 | 152 | $4,189.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 152 | $4,766.72 | $4,787.45 |
+$577.62 (+13.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.57 | 142 | $4,766.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $35.33 | 142 | $5,017.57 | $5,038.08 |
+$250.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,038.08
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,961.92
Total Return:
-49.62%