Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:27:47

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 18.0/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 15.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-9.6%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,197
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,833.66
Current Value
$10,764.93
Period P&L
$931.25
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
10 / 12
Best Trade
+9.68%
Worst Trade
-7.06%
Avg Trade Return
+0.55%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$502,991.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$931.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$931.25
Gross Return
+9.47%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $9,833.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $72.50 135 $9,787.50
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $76.24 135 $10,291.73 $10,337.90 +$504.23
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $75.31 137 $10,317.47
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET $79.15 137 $10,843.55 $10,863.98 +$526.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 2:40pm ET $88.78 122 $10,831.04
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $94.40 122 $11,516.80 $11,549.74 +$685.76
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:05am ET $118.29 97 $11,474.13
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 11:30am ET $114.43 97 $11,099.71 $11,175.32 $-374.42
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 11:30am ET $101.49 110 $11,163.90
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $98.23 110 $10,805.30 $10,816.72 $-358.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $114.94 94 $10,804.36
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 2:15pm ET $120.72 94 $11,347.67 $11,360.03 +$543.31
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 12:55pm ET $120.58 94 $11,334.52
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $116.71 94 $10,970.75 $10,996.26 $-363.77
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $113.15 97 $10,975.55
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET $108.11 97 $10,486.66 $10,507.37 $-488.89
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $109.13 96 $10,476.48
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $116.71 96 $11,204.16 $11,235.05 +$727.68
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:55pm ET $126.64 88 $11,144.33
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $138.90 88 $12,223.20 $12,313.92 +$1,078.87
(+9.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $119.21 103 $12,278.22
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $127.31 103 $13,112.93 $13,148.63 +$834.71
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:10am ET $123.58 106 $13,099.42
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $114.85 106 $12,174.50 $12,223.72 $-924.91
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $122.99 99 $12,176.01
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:35am ET $129.42 99 $12,812.58 $12,860.29 +$636.57
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $146.58 87 $12,752.25
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $140.88 87 $12,256.13 $12,364.16 $-496.13
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
15 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $143.92 85 $12,233.20
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $135.51 85 $11,518.35 $11,649.31 $-714.85
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $128.82 90 $11,593.80
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $136.26 90 $12,263.22 $12,318.73 +$669.42
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
4h held
17 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $148.63 82 $12,187.66
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $143.55 82 $11,771.10 $11,902.17 $-416.56
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
18 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $143.39 83 $11,901.44
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $136.09 83 $11,295.47 $11,296.20 $-605.97
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
19 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $131.43 85 $11,171.55
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:10am ET $127.13 85 $10,806.05 $10,930.70 $-365.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $134.00 81 $10,854.00
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET $140.75 81 $11,400.75 $11,477.45 +$546.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET $131.40 87 $11,432.23
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $127.03 87 $11,051.61 $11,096.83 $-380.63
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $120.01 92 $11,040.92
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:05am ET $116.40 92 $10,709.02 $10,764.93 $-331.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,764.93
Net Profit/Loss: +$764.93
Total Return: +7.65%
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