VXX Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 32 trades in period
+28.28%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,833.30
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$9,224.83
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
3.2/10
Raw Quality
15.9/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 15.3
30-Day Momentum
0
-7.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,683
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,224.83
Current Value
$11,833.30
Period P&L
$2,608.47
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
15 /
17
Best Trade
+8.36%
Worst Trade
-9.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$690,536.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,608.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,608.47
Gross Return
+28.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $9,224.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:55am ET | $34.05 | 274 | $9,329.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $36.20 | 274 | $9,917.43 | $9,935.85 |
+$587.73 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $33.16 | 299 | $9,914.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:25pm ET | $34.83 | 299 | $10,414.17 | $10,435.15 |
+$499.30 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 11:25am ET | $37.26 | 280 | $10,432.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $36.05 | 280 | $10,094.00 | $10,096.35 |
$-338.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:15am ET | $34.33 | 294 | $10,093.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $36.31 | 294 | $10,673.67 | $10,677.00 |
+$580.65 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:35am ET | $38.98 | 273 | $10,641.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 12:30pm ET | $37.78 | 273 | $10,313.75 | $10,349.21 |
$-327.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $34.75 | 297 | $10,319.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:50pm ET | $33.62 | 297 | $9,985.14 | $10,015.09 |
$-334.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:00pm ET | $30.03 | 333 | $9,999.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 9:55am ET | $29.10 | 333 | $9,690.30 | $9,705.40 |
$-309.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $29.04 | 334 | $9,699.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 10:30am ET | $28.11 | 334 | $9,388.67 | $9,394.71 |
$-310.69 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.25 | 357 | $9,369.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.04 | 357 | $10,010.28 | $10,035.53 |
+$640.81 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.29 | 354 | $10,014.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $27.43 | 354 | $9,710.22 | $9,731.09 |
$-304.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $27.73 | 350 | $9,705.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.87 | 350 | $9,404.50 | $9,430.09 |
$-301.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.43 | 356 | $9,410.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $27.81 | 356 | $9,900.36 | $9,920.40 |
+$490.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $27.81 | 356 | $9,900.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.57 | 356 | $10,526.92 | $10,546.96 |
+$626.56 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $27.99 | 376 | $10,524.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.09 | 376 | $10,185.84 | $10,208.56 |
$-338.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $29.23 | 349 | $10,201.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $28.35 | 349 | $9,894.22 | $9,901.51 |
$-307.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $28.28 | 350 | $9,898.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.27 | 350 | $9,546.25 | $9,549.51 |
$-352.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $28.53 | 334 | $9,529.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.60 | 334 | $10,220.40 | $10,240.89 |
+$691.38 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $32.56 | 314 | $10,225.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $31.54 | 314 | $9,903.56 | $9,919.04 |
$-321.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $31.26 | 317 | $9,911.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.88 | 317 | $10,739.96 | $10,748.00 |
+$828.96 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $36.03 | 298 | $10,737.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $34.94 | 298 | $10,413.61 | $10,424.04 |
$-323.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $31.22 | 333 | $10,396.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $32.90 | 333 | $10,955.70 | $10,983.71 |
+$559.67 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.38 | 329 | $10,982.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $35.13 | 329 | $11,559.41 | $11,561.10 |
+$577.39 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.63 | 365 | $11,544.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $33.22 | 365 | $12,125.30 | $12,141.45 |
+$580.35 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $35.14 | 345 | $12,123.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:15pm ET | $33.97 | 345 | $11,721.37 | $11,739.52 |
$-401.93 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.70 | 348 | $11,727.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.39 | 348 | $12,315.72 | $12,327.64 |
+$588.12 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.92 | 363 | $12,312.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $35.63 | 363 | $12,933.69 | $12,948.37 |
+$620.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $37.27 | 347 | $12,932.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:40pm ET | $39.13 | 347 | $13,579.84 | $13,595.52 |
+$647.15 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.21 | 365 | $13,581.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $36.06 | 365 | $13,161.90 | $13,175.77 |
$-419.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $35.97 | 366 | $13,166.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $34.79 | 366 | $12,733.14 | $12,742.06 |
$-433.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $34.84 | 365 | $12,716.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.55 | 365 | $11,515.79 | $11,541.25 |
$-1,200.81 (-9.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 12:10pm ET | $30.70 | 375 | $11,514.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $29.75 | 375 | $11,158.12 | $11,185.00 |
$-356.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.16 | 383 | $11,169.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.85 | 383 | $11,817.46 | $11,833.30 |
+$648.30 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,833.30
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,833.30
Total Return:
+18.33%