Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:28:29

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.9/35
Total Return
14.8/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
4.6/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 44.0/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 35.9

30-Day Momentum

32
+7.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.1 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,799
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,714.45
Current Value
$15,866.42
Period P&L
$3,151.95
Max Drawdown
-17.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.68

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
7 / 2
Best Trade
+5.44%
Worst Trade
-5.24%
Avg Trade Return
+2.58%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$249,931.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,151.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,151.95
Gross Return
+24.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $12,714.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET $227.54 55 $12,514.70
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 12:00pm ET $239.34 55 $13,163.70 $13,363.46 +$649.00
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:00am ET $237.25 56 $13,286.00
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $224.82 56 $12,589.92 $12,667.38 $-696.08
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $203.01 62 $12,586.93
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $208.92 62 $12,952.88 $13,033.34 +$365.95
(+2.9%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.3d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:00am ET $207.52 62 $12,866.55
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:00am ET $212.59 62 $13,180.58 $13,347.37 +$314.03
(+2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $201.77 66 $13,317.15
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:15am ET $211.96 66 $13,989.47 $14,019.69 +$672.32
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 10:20am ET $258.24 54 $13,945.23
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:10am ET $271.85 54 $14,679.90 $14,754.36 +$734.67
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
7 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:50am ET $256.74 57 $14,634.18
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:05am ET $270.05 57 $15,392.85 $15,513.03 +$758.67
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET $263.11 58 $15,260.67
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $255.15 58 $14,798.70 $15,051.06 $-461.97
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET $234.04 64 $14,978.56
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $246.78 64 $15,793.92 $15,866.42 +$815.36
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,866.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,866.42
Total Return: +58.66%
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