MARA Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-4.86%
Year to Date Return
$9,436.40
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$9,918.96
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.4
30-Day Momentum
30
+6.2%
30d Return
45%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 32.9
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,527
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,918.96
Current Value
$9,436.40
Period P&L
$-482.51
Max Drawdown
-46.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
15 /
26
Best Trade
+9.76%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
18.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$784,130.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-482.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$-482.51
Gross Return
-4.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $9,918.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $10.35 | 958 | $9,910.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $10.01 | 958 | $9,584.79 | $9,593.19 |
$-325.72 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.21 | 939 | $9,591.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $10.77 | 939 | $10,108.34 | $10,110.02 |
+$516.83 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $10.98 | 921 | $10,107.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $11.55 | 921 | $10,637.55 | $10,639.59 |
+$529.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $10.60 | 1,003 | $10,629.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.14 | 1,003 | $11,168.41 | $11,178.51 |
+$538.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $10.37 | 1,078 | $11,173.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.02 | 1,078 | $10,796.17 | $10,801.21 |
$-377.30 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.23 | 1,055 | $10,792.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $9.91 | 1,055 | $10,449.78 | $10,458.33 |
$-342.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.05 | 1,041 | $10,457.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $10.57 | 1,041 | $11,003.37 | $11,004.13 |
+$545.80 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 1,095 | $10,999.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $9.72 | 1,095 | $10,637.93 | $10,642.78 |
$-361.35 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $9.37 | 1,136 | $10,638.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $9.07 | 1,136 | $10,309.20 | $10,313.34 |
$-329.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.02 | 1,142 | $10,306.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $9.51 | 1,142 | $10,854.71 | $10,861.50 |
+$548.16 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.44 | 1,287 | $10,855.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $8.17 | 1,287 | $10,514.79 | $10,520.44 |
$-341.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $7.28 | 1,446 | $10,519.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $7.03 | 1,446 | $10,172.61 | $10,173.40 |
$-347.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 1,300 | $10,172.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,300 | $10,783.50 | $10,784.40 |
+$611.00 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $7.89 | 1,367 | $10,778.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.46 | 1,367 | $10,197.68 | $10,203.29 |
$-581.11 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.68 | 1,329 | $10,200.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $7.43 | 1,329 | $9,874.47 | $9,877.68 |
$-325.61 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.03 | 1,230 | $9,876.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $7.78 | 1,230 | $9,569.40 | $9,570.18 |
$-307.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $7.64 | 1,253 | $9,566.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $8.06 | 1,253 | $10,094.80 | $10,098.32 |
+$528.14 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.42 | 1,199 | $10,097.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $8.15 | 1,199 | $9,765.86 | $9,766.20 |
$-332.12 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.14 | 1,068 | $9,761.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.60 | 1,068 | $9,190.14 | $9,194.93 |
$-571.27 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.03 | 1,018 | $9,192.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 1,018 | $8,815.88 | $8,818.27 |
$-376.66 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $9.16 | 962 | $8,811.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.89 | 962 | $8,547.37 | $8,553.72 |
$-264.55 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.35 | 1,024 | $8,550.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $8.09 | 1,024 | $8,284.16 | $8,287.48 |
$-266.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $8.45 | 980 | $8,285.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 980 | $9,094.40 | $9,095.98 |
+$808.50 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.24 | 984 | $9,092.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.94 | 984 | $8,796.96 | $8,800.78 |
$-295.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.95 | 982 | $8,793.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.66 | 982 | $8,509.03 | $8,516.00 |
$-284.78 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $8.69 | 979 | $8,507.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $8.40 | 979 | $8,223.50 | $8,231.99 |
$-284.01 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.22 | 1,001 | $8,228.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.97 | 1,001 | $8,981.47 | $8,985.24 |
+$753.25 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.29 | 1,083 | $8,978.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 1,083 | $8,664.00 | $8,671.17 |
$-314.07 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $7.92 | 1,094 | $8,667.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $7.66 | 1,094 | $8,380.92 | $8,384.65 |
$-286.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,076 | $8,382.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,076 | $8,882.38 | $8,884.99 |
+$500.34 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.67 | 1,024 | $8,878.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.39 | 1,024 | $8,591.26 | $8,598.17 |
$-286.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 911 | $8,590.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 911 | $9,035.30 | $9,042.74 |
+$444.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $9.40 | 961 | $9,033.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.95 | 961 | $9,562.91 | $9,572.16 |
+$529.42 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.71 | 817 | $9,567.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 817 | $9,235.12 | $9,240.21 |
$-331.95 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.35 | 814 | $9,238.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 814 | $9,702.88 | $9,704.35 |
+$464.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.78 | 823 | $9,698.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.41 | 823 | $9,394.54 | $9,399.92 |
$-304.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 840 | $9,391.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 840 | $9,046.80 | $9,055.60 |
$-344.32 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 850 | $9,052.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 850 | $8,759.25 | $8,762.35 |
$-293.25 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.38 | 769 | $8,751.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.99 | 769 | $9,224.15 | $9,235.21 |
+$472.86 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.80 | 782 | $9,227.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $11.44 | 782 | $8,949.99 | $8,957.60 |
$-277.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.43 | 720 | $8,949.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $13.10 | 720 | $9,428.40 | $9,436.40 |
+$478.80 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,436.40
Net Profit/Loss:
$-563.60
Total Return:
-5.64%