Compendium › Danny Dip › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

+20.89%
Year to Date Return
$4,209.83
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$3,482.38
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:58:37

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 4.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

5
+0.7%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.5 Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,360
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$3,482.38
Current Value
$4,209.83
Period P&L
$727.45
Max Drawdown
-80.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
13 / 14
Best Trade
+8.52%
Worst Trade
-3.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.80%
Avg Hold Time
18.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$205,911.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$727.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$727.45
Gross Return
+20.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,482.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $30.83 112 $3,452.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET $29.90 112 $3,348.80 $3,378.57 $-103.82
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET $29.20 115 $3,357.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $28.23 115 $3,245.88 $3,267.02 $-111.55
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
24m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET $31.16 104 $3,240.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $32.79 104 $3,409.64 $3,436.54 +$169.52
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $31.25 109 $3,406.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $32.93 109 $3,589.37 $3,619.55 +$183.01
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 11:00am ET $32.09 112 $3,594.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $30.88 112 $3,458.56 $3,483.78 $-135.77
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET $30.02 116 $3,482.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET $31.67 116 $3,674.13 $3,675.59 +$191.81
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $30.51 120 $3,661.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET $29.59 120 $3,550.80 $3,565.19 $-110.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
36m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 3:05pm ET $29.91 119 $3,558.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $29.01 119 $3,451.74 $3,458.23 $-106.96
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $32.52 106 $3,447.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:05pm ET $34.26 106 $3,631.56 $3,642.67 +$184.44
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $30.36 119 $3,613.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET $32.95 119 $3,921.05 $3,950.56 +$307.89
(+8.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET $33.40 118 $3,941.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $33.47 118 $3,950.05 $3,958.82 +$8.26
(+0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
6.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 9:35am ET $29.67 133 $3,946.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $31.25 133 $4,156.25 $4,168.44 +$209.62
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $31.80 131 $4,166.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $30.73 131 $4,025.63 $4,027.67 $-140.77
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET $32.47 124 $4,026.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $31.32 124 $3,883.68 $3,885.07 $-142.60
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $30.88 125 $3,860.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:30am ET $29.94 125 $3,742.50 $3,767.57 $-117.50
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $32.17 117 $3,764.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $31.17 117 $3,647.38 $3,650.48 $-117.09
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET $31.01 117 $3,628.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:40am ET $32.58 117 $3,811.28 $3,833.58 +$183.11
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $22.07 173 $3,817.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET $21.33 173 $3,690.95 $3,707.29 $-126.29
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $21.30 174 $3,706.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 2:35pm ET $22.40 174 $3,896.73 $3,897.82 +$190.53
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $23.41 166 $3,886.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $22.65 166 $3,759.90 $3,771.66 $-126.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET $21.20 177 $3,753.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET $22.36 177 $3,957.72 $3,976.10 +$204.44
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET $21.95 181 $3,972.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $23.09 181 $4,179.24 $4,182.39 +$206.29
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $22.57 185 $4,175.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $21.83 185 $4,037.63 $4,044.57 $-137.82
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $22.97 176 $4,042.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $24.22 176 $4,262.72 $4,264.57 +$220.00
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $26.51 160 $4,241.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $27.98 160 $4,476.80 $4,499.77 +$235.20
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET $28.42 158 $4,490.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $27.54 158 $4,351.32 $4,360.71 $-139.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $26.58 164 $4,359.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $25.66 164 $4,208.24 $4,209.83 $-150.88
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,209.83
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,790.17
Total Return: -57.90%
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