LLY Danny Dip's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 44 trades executed
+43.58%
2 Years Return
$15,859.82
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$11,045.95
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.9/35
Total Return
14.7/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
39.9/100
× Confidence 0.84
= 33.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,806
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
529 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,045.95
Current Value
$15,859.82
Total P&L
$4,813.88
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
18 /
21
Best Trade
+12.46%
Worst Trade
-6.11%
Avg Trade Return
+1.17%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,039,533.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,813.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,813.88
Gross Return
+43.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+43.58%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 529 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,045.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 3, 2024 9:45am ET | $736.99 | 14 | $10,317.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2024 10:50am ET | $774.13 | 14 | $10,837.82 | $11,173.77 |
+$519.96 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2024 1:35pm ET | $870.49 | 12 | $10,445.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 28, 2024 10:10am ET | $915.39 | 12 | $10,984.68 | $11,712.63 |
+$538.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2024 9:35am ET | $886.81 | 13 | $11,528.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2024 3:05pm ET | $931.97 | 13 | $12,115.61 | $12,299.71 |
+$587.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $909.95 | 13 | $11,829.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2024 10:20am ET | $882.19 | 13 | $11,468.47 | $11,938.83 |
$-360.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2024 9:35am ET | $829.46 | 14 | $11,612.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 26, 2024 3:30pm ET | $804.48 | 14 | $11,262.72 | $11,589.11 |
$-349.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2024 10:40am ET | $791.34 | 14 | $11,078.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2024 9:40am ET | $831.09 | 14 | $11,635.26 | $12,145.61 |
+$556.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 9:50am ET | $806.47 | 15 | $12,097.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $757.23 | 15 | $11,358.45 | $11,407.01 |
$-738.60 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $768.82 | 14 | $10,763.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $853.07 | 14 | $11,942.91 | $12,586.44 |
+$1,179.43 (+11.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2024 10:45am ET | $913.30 | 13 | $11,872.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2024 10:45am ET | $904.75 | 13 | $11,761.75 | $12,475.29 |
$-111.15 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 27, 2024 11:00am ET | $881.44 | 14 | $12,340.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2024 11:00am ET | $921.82 | 14 | $12,905.50 | $13,040.63 |
+$565.34 (+4.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $791.55 | 16 | $12,664.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2024 10:40am ET | $836.26 | 16 | $13,380.18 | $13,756.05 |
+$715.41 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:45am ET | $781.06 | 17 | $13,277.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 8, 2024 10:25am ET | $820.50 | 17 | $13,948.50 | $14,426.61 |
+$670.57 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $763.07 | 18 | $13,735.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $727.24 | 18 | $13,090.24 | $13,781.68 |
$-644.93 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:05am ET | $803.38 | 17 | $13,657.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 3:20pm ET | $778.57 | 17 | $13,235.69 | $13,359.91 |
$-421.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $769.00 | 17 | $13,073.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $745.81 | 17 | $12,678.69 | $12,965.60 |
$-394.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2025 10:40am ET | $882.04 | 14 | $12,348.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $855.19 | 14 | $11,972.66 | $12,589.70 |
$-375.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $793.08 | 15 | $11,896.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $762.74 | 15 | $11,441.03 | $12,134.52 |
$-455.18 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $698.36 | 17 | $11,872.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $738.54 | 17 | $12,555.18 | $12,817.58 |
+$683.06 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $714.02 | 17 | $12,138.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 10:55am ET | $691.10 | 17 | $11,748.70 | $12,427.94 |
$-389.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $716.24 | 17 | $12,176.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2025 11:00am ET | $752.13 | 17 | $12,786.13 | $13,037.99 |
+$610.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2025 9:50am ET | $732.66 | 17 | $12,455.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $823.92 | 17 | $14,006.56 | $14,589.32 |
+$1,551.34 (+12.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $833.68 | 17 | $14,172.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 11:40am ET | $808.62 | 17 | $13,746.54 | $14,163.39 |
$-425.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:50am ET | $799.47 | 17 | $13,590.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 2:35pm ET | $774.93 | 17 | $13,173.81 | $13,746.29 |
$-417.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $748.19 | 18 | $13,467.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $724.36 | 18 | $13,038.48 | $13,317.35 |
$-428.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $730.80 | 18 | $13,154.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $721.40 | 18 | $12,985.20 | $13,148.08 |
$-169.28 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $758.54 | 17 | $12,895.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 12:25pm ET | $796.82 | 17 | $13,545.94 | $13,798.92 |
+$650.85 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2025 10:45am ET | $778.80 | 17 | $13,239.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 10:45am ET | $777.32 | 17 | $13,214.44 | $13,773.76 |
$-25.16 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $661.20 | 20 | $13,224.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $638.02 | 20 | $12,760.30 | $13,310.06 |
$-463.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 10:30am ET | $630.19 | 21 | $13,233.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2025 9:50am ET | $663.15 | 21 | $13,926.15 | $14,002.22 |
+$692.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $794.00 | 17 | $13,498.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:25am ET | $833.82 | 17 | $14,174.91 | $14,679.13 |
+$676.91 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $910.86 | 16 | $14,573.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $964.43 | 16 | $15,430.88 | $15,536.25 |
+$857.12 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:45am ET | $1,068.74 | 14 | $14,962.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $1,033.46 | 14 | $14,468.44 | $15,042.40 |
$-493.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,047.72 | 14 | $14,668.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,103.03 | 14 | $15,442.42 | $15,816.74 |
+$774.34 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,038.69 | 15 | $15,580.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $1,091.91 | 15 | $16,378.65 | $16,615.04 |
+$798.30 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,012.17 | 16 | $16,194.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,090.07 | 16 | $17,441.12 | $17,861.44 |
+$1,246.40 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,048.31 | 17 | $17,821.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,014.87 | 17 | $17,252.79 | $17,292.95 |
$-568.48 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,072.00 | 16 | $17,152.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,046.36 | 16 | $16,741.76 | $16,882.71 |
$-410.24 (-2.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $972.59 | 17 | $16,534.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $941.04 | 17 | $15,997.68 | $16,346.36 |
$-536.35 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $890.01 | 18 | $16,020.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $862.98 | 18 | $15,533.64 | $15,859.82 |
$-486.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,859.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,859.82
Total Return:
+58.60%