USO Danny Dip's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 36 trades executed
+20.98%
2 Years Return
$12,364.16
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,219.70
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
24
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.3/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
29.3/100
× Confidence 0.82
= 24.1
30-Day Momentum
5
+0.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.3
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
67,612
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,219.70
Current Value
$12,364.16
Total P&L
$2,144.45
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
17 /
17
Best Trade
+9.68%
Worst Trade
-7.63%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$743,038.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,144.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,144.45
Gross Return
+20.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.98%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $10,219.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2024 10:00am ET | $72.31 | 141 | $10,195.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2024 11:40am ET | $75.97 | 141 | $10,711.77 | $10,735.77 |
+$516.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $73.42 | 146 | $10,719.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $77.42 | 146 | $11,303.29 | $11,319.74 |
+$583.97 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2024 10:00am ET | $74.36 | 152 | $11,302.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2024 9:30am ET | $71.68 | 152 | $10,895.36 | $10,912.38 |
$-407.36 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 6, 2024 11:30am ET | $68.58 | 159 | $10,904.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2024 11:40am ET | $66.12 | 159 | $10,513.06 | $10,521.22 |
$-391.16 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $68.91 | 152 | $10,474.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 11:00am ET | $72.44 | 152 | $11,010.23 | $11,057.13 |
+$535.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $76.72 | 144 | $11,047.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2024 9:30am ET | $73.99 | 144 | $10,654.56 | $10,664.01 |
$-393.12 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 147 | $10,592.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2024 2:25pm ET | $69.79 | 147 | $10,259.13 | $10,330.33 |
$-333.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 10:25am ET | $70.89 | 145 | $10,279.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 22, 2024 1:25pm ET | $74.45 | 145 | $10,795.25 | $10,846.53 |
+$516.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $75.74 | 143 | $10,830.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $76.53 | 143 | $10,943.79 | $10,960.22 |
+$113.69 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $71.39 | 153 | $10,922.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 10:30am ET | $72.40 | 153 | $11,077.20 | $11,114.75 |
+$154.53 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.59 | 153 | $11,106.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $67.05 | 153 | $10,258.62 | $10,267.10 |
$-847.65 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $65.25 | 157 | $10,244.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:30pm ET | $63.18 | 157 | $9,918.48 | $9,941.32 |
$-325.78 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $64.59 | 153 | $9,882.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 3:10pm ET | $67.83 | 153 | $10,377.99 | $10,437.04 |
+$495.72 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:50am ET | $67.55 | 154 | $10,402.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $65.42 | 154 | $10,074.68 | $10,109.02 |
$-328.02 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $62.02 | 162 | $10,047.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 10:15am ET | $65.13 | 162 | $10,551.06 | $10,612.84 |
+$503.82 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 9:50am ET | $78.41 | 135 | $10,585.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 2:15pm ET | $82.35 | 135 | $11,117.25 | $11,144.74 |
+$531.90 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $79.83 | 139 | $11,096.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 2:15pm ET | $77.35 | 139 | $10,751.65 | $10,800.02 |
$-344.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 9:50am ET | $75.08 | 143 | $10,736.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.65 | 143 | $10,388.95 | $10,452.54 |
$-347.48 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 9:50am ET | $70.64 | 147 | $10,384.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $68.51 | 147 | $10,070.72 | $10,139.18 |
$-313.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $68.56 | 147 | $10,078.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 9:45am ET | $66.48 | 147 | $9,772.56 | $9,833.67 |
$-305.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $72.50 | 135 | $9,787.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.24 | 135 | $10,291.73 | $10,337.90 |
+$504.23 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.31 | 137 | $10,317.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET | $79.15 | 137 | $10,843.55 | $10,863.98 |
+$526.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 2:40pm ET | $88.78 | 122 | $10,831.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.40 | 122 | $11,516.80 | $11,549.74 |
+$685.76 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $118.29 | 97 | $11,474.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $114.43 | 97 | $11,099.71 | $11,175.32 |
$-374.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $101.49 | 110 | $11,163.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $98.23 | 110 | $10,805.30 | $10,816.72 |
$-358.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.94 | 94 | $10,804.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $120.72 | 94 | $11,347.67 | $11,360.03 |
+$543.31 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $120.58 | 94 | $11,334.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET | $116.71 | 94 | $10,970.75 | $10,996.26 |
$-363.77 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.15 | 97 | $10,975.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $108.11 | 97 | $10,486.66 | $10,507.37 |
$-488.89 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.13 | 96 | $10,476.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.71 | 96 | $11,204.16 | $11,235.05 |
+$727.68 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:55pm ET | $126.64 | 88 | $11,144.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.90 | 88 | $12,223.20 | $12,313.92 |
+$1,078.87 (+9.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.21 | 103 | $12,278.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $127.31 | 103 | $13,112.93 | $13,148.63 |
+$834.71 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $123.58 | 106 | $13,099.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.85 | 106 | $12,174.50 | $12,223.72 |
$-924.91 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $122.99 | 99 | $12,176.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $129.42 | 99 | $12,812.58 | $12,860.29 |
+$636.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.58 | 87 | $12,752.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $140.88 | 87 | $12,256.13 | $12,364.16 |
$-496.13 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,364.16
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,364.16
Total Return:
+23.64%