Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 15:36:59

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 71%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality 4.0/100
× Confidence 0.71 = 2.8

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.2%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (71%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,963
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$8,169.08
Period P&L
$-1,830.92
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.45

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
3 / 8
Best Trade
+5.14%
Worst Trade
-7.64%
Avg Trade Return
-1.77%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$177,353.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,830.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,830.92
Gross Return
-18.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-18.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 12, 2025 9:30am ET $345.78 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET $354.35 0 $0.00 $10,239.82 +$239.82
(+2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:45am ET $273.09 37 $10,104.33
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $252.22 37 $9,332.14 $9,467.63 $-772.19
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:40am ET $246.99 38 $9,385.62
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $238.88 38 $9,077.44 $9,159.45 $-308.18
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $235.71 38 $8,956.98
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $228.58 38 $8,686.04 $8,888.51 $-270.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $241.20 36 $8,683.20
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $253.36 36 $9,120.96 $9,326.27 +$437.76
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
6 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $248.59 37 $9,197.83
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $241.13 37 $8,921.81 $9,050.25 $-276.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
7 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:35am ET $256.56 35 $8,979.60
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $246.71 35 $8,634.85 $8,705.50 $-344.75
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
8 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $243.59 35 $8,525.65
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:50am ET $256.12 35 $8,964.20 $9,144.05 +$438.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $264.17 34 $8,981.61
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $254.95 34 $8,668.30 $8,830.74 $-313.31
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $238.87 36 $8,599.14
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $227.99 36 $8,207.46 $8,439.06 $-391.68
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $202.40 41 $8,298.40
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $195.82 41 $8,028.42 $8,169.08 $-269.98
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,169.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,830.92
Total Return: -18.31%
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