MARA Dipster's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 14:55:00+00 • 60 trades executed
+67.07%
2 Years Return
$17,740.31
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,618.24
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.0/35
Total Return
15.7/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
54.3/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 48.4
30-Day Momentum
13
+0.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.2
Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-35 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
87,567
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,618.24
Current Value
$17,740.31
Total P&L
$7,122.07
Max Drawdown
-10.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
44
Winners / Losers
22 /
22
Best Trade
+9.76%
Worst Trade
-4.18%
Avg Trade Return
+1.27%
Avg Hold Time
12.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$670,123.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,122.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,122.07
Gross Return
+67.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+67.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $10,618.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $18.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2024 10:40am ET | $19.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,162.41 |
+$544.17 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2024 9:30am ET | $20.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $20.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,151.53 |
$-10.88 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $17.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2024 1:05pm ET | $18.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,716.27 |
+$564.74 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $18.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2024 12:30pm ET | $19.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,338.05 |
+$621.78 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 10:05am ET | $15.69 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 11:35am ET | $16.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,064.24 |
+$726.19 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $16.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2024 12:50pm ET | $17.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,737.06 |
+$672.82 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2024 9:35am ET | $17.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2024 3:50pm ET | $18.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,464.80 |
+$727.74 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $17.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 12:35pm ET | $18.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,279.90 |
+$815.10 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 10:00am ET | $24.14 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 11:35am ET | $23.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,758.44 |
$-521.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:35am ET | $22.03 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 9:50am ET | $21.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,216.62 |
$-541.82 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 9:35am ET | $24.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2024 10:05am ET | $23.40 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,622.98 |
$-593.64 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $25.70 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2024 10:40am ET | $27.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,681.39 |
+$1,058.41 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $25.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2024 12:55pm ET | $25.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,201.08 |
$-480.31 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $19.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2025 11:05am ET | $20.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,948.96 |
+$747.88 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.56 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,767.94 |
$-181.02 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 11:25am ET | $10.37 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 12:55pm ET | $10.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,565.38 |
+$797.44 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 10:20am ET | $11.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 10:20am ET | $11.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,890.15 |
+$324.77 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.85 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 2:20pm ET | $16.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,391.49 |
$-498.66 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 2:10pm ET | $17.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $14,817.95 |
$-573.54 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,007.10 |
+$189.15 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 2:10pm ET | $16.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,767.20 |
+$760.10 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $18.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 11:55am ET | $18.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,260.27 |
$-506.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 2:35pm ET | $18.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 2:35pm ET | $18.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $15,200.04 |
$-60.23 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.95 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,010.13 |
+$810.09 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,971.75 |
+$961.62 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.45 | 2,007 | $16,969.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.18 | 2,007 | $16,410.44 | $16,413.00 |
$-558.75 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $8.45 | 1,941 | $16,411.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 1,941 | $18,012.48 | $18,014.32 |
+$1,601.32 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.24 | 1,949 | $18,008.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.94 | 1,949 | $17,424.06 | $17,429.62 |
$-584.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.95 | 1,946 | $17,426.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.66 | 1,946 | $16,862.09 | $16,865.28 |
$-564.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $8.69 | 1,940 | $16,858.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $8.40 | 1,940 | $16,295.81 | $16,302.49 |
$-562.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.22 | 1,983 | $16,300.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.97 | 1,983 | $17,792.47 | $17,794.70 |
+$1,492.21 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.29 | 2,146 | $17,790.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 2,146 | $17,168.00 | $17,172.36 |
$-622.34 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $7.92 | 2,167 | $17,168.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $7.66 | 2,167 | $16,600.95 | $16,604.82 |
$-567.54 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 2,131 | $16,600.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 2,131 | $17,591.41 | $17,595.74 |
+$990.92 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.67 | 2,029 | $17,591.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.39 | 2,029 | $17,023.11 | $17,027.42 |
$-568.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 1,805 | $17,021.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 1,805 | $17,901.99 | $17,908.26 |
+$880.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $9.40 | 1,905 | $17,907.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.95 | 1,905 | $18,956.66 | $18,957.73 |
+$1,049.47 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.71 | 1,618 | $18,946.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 1,618 | $18,289.39 | $18,300.34 |
$-657.39 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.35 | 1,612 | $18,295.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 1,612 | $19,215.04 | $19,219.50 |
+$919.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.78 | 1,630 | $19,209.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.41 | 1,630 | $18,606.45 | $18,616.56 |
$-602.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 1,665 | $18,614.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 1,665 | $17,932.05 | $17,934.08 |
$-682.48 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 1,683 | $17,923.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 1,683 | $17,343.32 | $17,353.45 |
$-580.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.38 | 1,524 | $17,343.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.99 | 1,524 | $18,280.38 | $18,290.56 |
+$937.11 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.80 | 1,550 | $18,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $11.44 | 1,550 | $17,739.75 | $17,740.31 |
$-550.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,740.31
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,740.31
Total Return:
+77.40%