MRNA Dipster's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 14:00:00+00 • 41 trades executed
+2.17%
2 Years Return
$9,752.39
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,545.02
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
3.7/100
× Confidence 0.84
= 3.1
30-Day Momentum
34
+10.8%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.8
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
66,350
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,545.02
Current Value
$9,752.39
Total P&L
$207.37
Max Drawdown
-29.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
15 /
24
Best Trade
+6.24%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
22.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$248,475.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$207.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$207.37
Gross Return
+2.17%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.17%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $9,545.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $142.80 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $145.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,745.99 |
+$200.97 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $152.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $150.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,639.20 |
$-106.79 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $130.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2024 9:45am ET | $126.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,351.58 |
$-287.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $116.85 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $121.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,703.18 |
+$351.60 (+3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2024 9:30am ET | $94.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2024 9:45am ET | $100.56 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,278.97 |
+$575.79 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $81.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2024 2:20pm ET | $85.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,796.83 |
+$517.86 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 12, 2024 9:45am ET | $64.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2024 12:40pm ET | $67.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,337.09 |
+$540.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $54.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2024 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,899.38 |
$-437.71 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 3:30pm ET | $39.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $38.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,470.77 |
$-428.61 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $37.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2024 11:50am ET | $39.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,014.11 |
+$543.34 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.37 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2025 11:00am ET | $43.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,677.73 |
$-336.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 10:20am ET | $36.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $34.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,129.42 |
$-548.31 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2025 12:20pm ET | $33.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,782.14 |
$-347.28 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $34.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 1:00pm ET | $34.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,767.94 |
$-14.20 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 10:30am ET | $31.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 12:15pm ET | $32.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,263.99 |
+$496.05 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 10:25am ET | $33.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,930.23 |
$-333.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.80 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 10:20am ET | $26.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,621.42 |
$-308.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 10:20am ET | $24.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $24.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,324.97 |
$-296.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 12:40pm ET | $26.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 1:20pm ET | $25.18 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,031.41 |
$-293.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 11:20am ET | $29.02 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 12:30pm ET | $28.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,743.73 |
$-287.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2025 12:40pm ET | $24.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 12:40pm ET | $24.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,702.90 |
$-40.83 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 12, 2025 11:35am ET | $23.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 12:50pm ET | $23.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,440.38 |
$-262.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,293.38 |
$-147.00 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $41.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,017.86 |
$-275.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $39.18 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,463.90 |
+$446.04 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.33 | 147 | $8,427.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $55.60 | 147 | $8,173.93 | $8,210.32 |
$-253.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $49.65 | 165 | $8,192.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $52.15 | 165 | $8,604.75 | $8,622.82 |
+$412.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.04 | 162 | $8,592.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.35 | 162 | $9,128.70 | $9,159.04 |
+$536.22 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.98 | 169 | $9,122.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $52.34 | 169 | $8,845.46 | $8,881.68 |
$-277.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.91 | 164 | $8,841.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.06 | 164 | $8,537.84 | $8,578.28 |
$-303.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.60 | 169 | $8,551.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.15 | 169 | $8,981.51 | $9,008.39 |
+$430.11 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 173 | $8,982.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $50.17 | 173 | $8,679.41 | $8,705.64 |
$-302.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:00pm ET | $48.14 | 180 | $8,665.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $50.59 | 180 | $9,106.20 | $9,146.14 |
+$440.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $50.01 | 182 | $9,101.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 182 | $8,756.38 | $8,800.72 |
$-345.42 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.64 | 173 | $8,760.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 173 | $9,300.48 | $9,340.48 |
+$539.76 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.68 | 174 | $9,340.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.96 | 174 | $9,041.28 | $9,041.44 |
$-299.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.19 | 183 | $9,002.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.70 | 183 | $8,729.50 | $8,768.26 |
$-273.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $45.15 | 194 | $8,758.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.74 | 194 | $9,261.56 | $9,271.69 |
+$503.43 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.28 | 209 | $9,254.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.58 | 209 | $9,735.22 | $9,752.39 |
+$480.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,752.39
Net Profit/Loss:
$-247.61
Total Return:
-2.48%