Compendium › Dipster › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Dipster's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 14:55:00+00 • 22 trades executed

+25.89%
2 Years Return
$11,512.67
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$9,145.22
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:00

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 27.6/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 21.1

30-Day Momentum

16
+3.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
86,464
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,145.22
Current Value
$11,512.67
Total P&L
$2,367.45
Max Drawdown
-11.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
20
Winners / Losers
12 / 8
Best Trade
+6.16%
Worst Trade
-5.44%
Avg Trade Return
+1.23%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$157,021.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,367.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,367.45
Gross Return
+25.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $9,145.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 15, 2024 9:30am ET $5.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2024 9:35am ET $5.57 0 $0.00 $8,828.02 $-317.20
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 17, 2024 9:30am ET $5.10 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2024 9:30am ET $5.21 0 $0.00 $9,018.95 +$190.93
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2024 9:30am ET $4.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2024 9:30am ET $4.86 0 $0.00 $9,181.30 +$162.35
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 5, 2024 9:30am ET $4.51 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2024 9:30am ET $4.51 0 $0.00 $9,177.43 $-3.87
(-0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2024 9:30am ET $4.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2024 9:30am ET $4.69 0 $0.00 $9,401.99 +$224.56
(+2.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2024 9:35am ET $7.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2024 11:25am ET $7.04 0 $0.00 $9,117.09 $-284.90
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 9:30am ET $6.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2024 3:05pm ET $7.05 0 $0.00 $9,586.29 +$469.20
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 4, 2024 9:30am ET $6.49 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET $6.68 0 $0.00 $9,867.11 +$280.82
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET $5.69 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET $5.38 0 $0.00 $9,330.23 $-536.88
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $4.49 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:15am ET $4.76 0 $0.00 $9,904.93 +$574.70
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET $6.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2025 12:35pm ET $6.19 0 $0.00 $9,606.52 $-298.41
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2025 9:30am ET $6.30 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 29, 2025 9:30am ET $6.45 0 $0.00 $9,840.61 +$234.09
(+2.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET $5.00 0 $0.00 $10,336.48 +$495.87
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:30am ET $5.55 1,862 $10,334.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:45am ET $5.84 1,862 $10,874.08 $10,876.46 +$539.98
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,904 $10,871.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $5.51 1,904 $10,500.56 $10,505.18 $-371.28
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $5.47 1,922 $10,503.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:05am ET $5.80 1,922 $11,137.99 $11,139.44 +$634.26
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET $6.08 1,832 $11,138.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $6.43 1,832 $11,779.76 $11,780.64 +$641.20
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $6.26 1,880 $11,778.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET $6.04 1,880 $11,355.01 $11,357.45 $-423.19
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $6.32 1,797 $11,357.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $6.64 1,797 $11,941.06 $11,941.47 +$584.02
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $6.17 1,935 $11,938.95 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $5.95 1,935 $11,510.15 $11,512.67 $-428.80
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,512.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,512.67
Total Return: +15.13%
Back to Dipster