Compendium › Earnings Stress › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Earnings Stress's Analysis

to 2026-05-07 15:45:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+5.93%
2 Years Return
$10,688.05
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$10,089.48
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:47:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
87.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
69.6/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,865
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
521 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,089.48
Current Value
$10,688.05
Total P&L
$598.57
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.85

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+3.87%
Worst Trade
-1.02%
Avg Trade Return
+1.47%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$82,689.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$598.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$598.57
Gross Return
+5.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 521 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Earnings Stress had $10,089.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:35am ET $253.76 40 $10,089.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $257.99 40 $10,257.66 $10,257.66 +$168.18
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 1:30pm ET $254.26 40 $10,257.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $251.66 40 $10,152.77 $10,152.77 $-104.89
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 10:25am ET $243.01 42 $10,152.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $252.41 42 $10,545.71 $10,545.71 +$392.94
(+3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 11:25am ET $263.76 40 $10,545.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $267.32 40 $10,688.05 $10,688.05 +$142.34
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,688.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$688.05
Total Return: +6.88%
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