Compendium › Fear Fade › PLTR
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PLTR
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-30 to present • 5 trades in period

+13.45%
Last Year Return
$18,156.52
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$16,003.78
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-30 14:20:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
15.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.46%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.72
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.9
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
21.5 oversold
20d Trend
-29.6%
5d Trend
-14.4%
EMA20 Dist
-18.7%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 51%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.9/25
Win Rate
14.4/15
Profit Factor
10.4/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality 83.5/100
× Confidence 0.51 = 42.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (51%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
38,843
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-30 → 2026-05-29
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$16,003.78
Current Value
$18,156.52
Period P&L
$2,152.74
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.30

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
5 / 0
Best Trade
+6.27%
Worst Trade
+0.26%
Avg Trade Return
+2.59%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$171,460.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,152.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,152.74
Gross Return
+13.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PLTR Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $16,003.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:30am ET $125.10 127 $15,887.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $132.95 127 $16,884.65 $17,000.73 +$996.95
(+6.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 9:30am ET $177.51 95 $16,863.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $177.97 95 $16,907.08 $17,044.74 +$44.01
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $169.86 100 $16,985.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $173.16 100 $17,315.50 $17,374.55 +$329.81
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET $157.11 110 $17,282.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $160.27 110 $17,629.15 $17,721.60 +$347.05
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $134.62 131 $17,635.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $137.94 131 $18,070.14 $18,156.52 +$434.92
(+2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,156.52
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,156.52
Total Return: +81.57%
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