Compendium › Fear Fade › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 1 trades in period

+0.73%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,277.38
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,202.75
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:47:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
4.8/25
Win Rate
11.1/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 24.8/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 12.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,876
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,202.75
Current Value
$10,277.38
Period P&L
$74.64
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
1
Winners / Losers
1 / 0
Best Trade
+0.77%
Worst Trade
+0.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.77%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$19,355.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$74.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$74.64
Gross Return
+0.73%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 1 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $10,202.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $602.53 16 $9,640.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $607.20 16 $9,715.20 $10,277.38 +$74.64
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,277.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$277.38
Total Return: +2.77%
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