Compendium › Fear Fade › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+3.78%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,026.12
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$9,661.04
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:37

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.2/35
Total Return
0.8/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 15.4/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 7.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,575
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,661.04
Current Value
$10,026.12
Period P&L
$365.06
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
4.35

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+1.57%
Worst Trade
+0.89%
Avg Trade Return
+1.31%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$56,425.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$365.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$365.06
Gross Return
+3.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $9,661.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $662.90 14 $9,280.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $673.33 14 $9,426.62 $9,807.08 +$146.02
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET $655.45 14 $9,176.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $665.03 14 $9,310.36 $9,941.14 +$134.06
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $683.80 14 $9,573.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $689.87 14 $9,658.18 $10,026.12 +$84.98
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,026.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$26.12
Total Return: +0.26%
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