Compendium › Fear Fade › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

+1.90%
2 Years Return
$10,277.38
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$10,086.02
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:37:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
4.8/25
Win Rate
11.1/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 24.8/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 12.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,073
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,086.02
Current Value
$10,277.38
Total P&L
$191.37
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
22
Winners / Losers
15 / 7
Best Trade
+6.61%
Worst Trade
-11.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$423,880.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$191.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$191.37
Gross Return
+1.90%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $10,086.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2024 9:30am ET $462.31 21 $9,708.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2024 9:30am ET $465.09 21 $9,766.79 $10,144.40 +$58.38
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET $448.29 22 $9,862.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $427.61 22 $9,407.42 $9,689.55 $-454.85
(-4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2024 3:40pm ET $442.80 21 $9,298.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:40pm ET $447.85 21 $9,404.85 $9,795.60 +$106.05
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 23, 2024 9:30am ET $478.23 20 $9,564.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2024 9:30am ET $480.18 20 $9,603.60 $9,834.60 +$39.00
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 29, 2024 9:30am ET $475.46 20 $9,509.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2024 9:30am ET $471.85 20 $9,437.00 $9,762.38 $-72.22
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2024 9:30am ET $459.79 21 $9,655.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 6, 2024 9:30am ET $459.98 21 $9,659.58 $9,766.37 +$3.99
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2024 9:30am ET $480.45 20 $9,609.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 4, 2024 9:30am ET $487.15 20 $9,743.00 $9,900.37 +$134.00
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET $483.98 20 $9,679.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2024 9:30am ET $491.28 20 $9,825.60 $10,046.37 +$146.00
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET $521.18 19 $9,902.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2024 9:30am ET $520.08 19 $9,881.52 $10,025.47 $-20.90
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $515.46 19 $9,793.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $510.68 19 $9,702.92 $9,934.65 $-90.82
(-0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $497.07 19 $9,444.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 9:30am ET $512.25 19 $9,732.75 $10,223.07 +$288.42
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET $493.39 20 $9,867.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET $492.92 20 $9,858.40 $10,213.67 $-9.40
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 9:30am ET $488.72 20 $9,774.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $481.96 20 $9,639.20 $10,078.44 $-135.22
(-1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET $472.35 21 $9,919.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $476.00 21 $9,996.00 $10,155.09 +$76.65
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $459.53 22 $10,109.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $408.02 22 $8,976.44 $9,021.87 $-1,133.22
(-11.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $417.18 21 $8,760.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 9:30am ET $444.75 21 $9,339.75 $9,600.84 +$578.97
(+6.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
17 🟢 BUY May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $512.53 18 $9,225.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 9:30am ET $515.59 18 $9,280.62 $9,655.92 +$55.08
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
5d held
18 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:30am ET $518.52 18 $9,333.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $520.10 18 $9,361.88 $9,684.44 +$28.52
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 9:30am ET $599.01 16 $9,584.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $608.77 16 $9,740.32 $9,840.60 +$156.16
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $600.21 16 $9,603.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $611.13 16 $9,778.08 $10,015.40 +$174.80
(+1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET $588.10 17 $9,997.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $599.12 17 $10,185.04 $10,202.74 +$187.34
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $602.53 16 $9,640.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $607.20 16 $9,715.20 $10,277.38 +$74.64
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,277.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$277.38
Total Return: +2.77%
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