Compendium › Fear Fade › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

-0.53%
2 Years Return
$10,026.12
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,079.36
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:47:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.2/35
Total Return
0.8/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 15.4/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 7.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
87,334
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,079.36
Current Value
$10,026.12
Total P&L
$-53.26
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
22
Winners / Losers
13 / 9
Best Trade
+5.52%
Worst Trade
-10.94%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,485.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-53.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-53.26
Gross Return
-0.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $10,079.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2024 9:30am ET $540.81 18 $9,734.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2024 9:30am ET $544.99 18 $9,809.82 $10,154.69 +$75.33
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET $534.05 19 $10,146.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $512.23 19 $9,732.37 $9,740.11 $-414.58
(-4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2024 9:30am ET $519.46 18 $9,350.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 9:30am ET $523.94 18 $9,430.92 $9,820.75 +$80.64
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 23, 2024 9:30am ET $559.19 17 $9,506.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2024 9:30am ET $563.74 17 $9,583.58 $9,898.05 +$77.29
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 29, 2024 9:30am ET $560.80 17 $9,533.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2024 9:30am ET $560.24 17 $9,524.08 $9,888.53 $-9.52
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2024 9:30am ET $551.39 17 $9,373.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 6, 2024 9:30am ET $551.08 17 $9,368.36 $9,883.26 $-5.27
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2024 9:30am ET $566.80 17 $9,635.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 4, 2024 9:30am ET $572.09 17 $9,725.45 $9,973.19 +$89.93
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET $569.75 17 $9,685.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2024 9:30am ET $575.75 17 $9,787.75 $10,075.19 +$102.00
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET $592.76 16 $9,484.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2024 9:30am ET $591.23 16 $9,459.68 $10,050.71 $-24.48
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $588.24 17 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $585.18 17 $9,948.06 $9,998.77 $-51.94
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $583.41 17 $9,917.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 9:30am ET $596.88 17 $10,146.96 $10,227.76 +$228.99
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET $578.56 17 $9,835.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET $575.10 17 $9,776.70 $10,168.94 $-58.82
(-0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 9:30am ET $572.79 17 $9,737.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $567.15 17 $9,641.55 $10,073.01 $-95.93
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET $558.97 18 $10,061.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $558.32 18 $10,049.76 $10,061.31 $-11.70
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $547.51 18 $9,855.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $487.60 18 $8,776.80 $8,982.93 $-1,078.38
(-10.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $495.32 18 $8,915.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 9:30am ET $522.68 18 $9,408.24 $9,475.41 +$492.48
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
17 🟢 BUY May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $581.74 16 $9,307.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 9:30am ET $585.08 16 $9,361.28 $9,528.86 +$53.44
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
5d held
18 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:30am ET $588.16 16 $9,410.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $589.37 16 $9,429.92 $9,548.22 +$19.36
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 9:30am ET $660.49 14 $9,246.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $668.55 14 $9,359.70 $9,661.06 +$112.84
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $662.90 14 $9,280.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $673.33 14 $9,426.62 $9,807.08 +$146.02
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET $655.45 14 $9,176.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $665.03 14 $9,310.36 $9,941.14 +$134.06
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $683.80 14 $9,573.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $689.87 14 $9,658.18 $10,026.12 +$84.98
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,026.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$26.12
Total Return: +0.26%
Back to Fear Fade