Compendium › Grace Crossover › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 27 trades in period

+7.44%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,619.55
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$10,814.41
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 10:46:06

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.2/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 19.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 19.3

30-Day Momentum

55
+9.9%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
3.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.7 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+36 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,773
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,814.41
Current Value
$11,619.55
Period P&L
$805.10
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
11 / 16
Best Trade
+8.09%
Worst Trade
-4.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
20.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$583,761.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$805.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$805.10
Gross Return
+7.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,814.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $70.08 154 $10,792.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $72.47 154 $11,161.15 $11,170.96 +$368.83
(+3.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET $69.74 160 $11,158.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET $69.67 160 $11,147.20 $11,159.76 $-11.20
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 10:05am ET $71.67 155 $11,108.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 12:45pm ET $71.33 155 $11,056.15 $11,107.06 $-52.70
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 1:45pm ET $71.80 154 $11,057.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $71.40 154 $10,995.60 $11,045.46 $-61.60
(-0.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
45m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:55am ET $73.81 149 $10,996.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET $73.31 149 $10,922.45 $10,970.96 $-74.50
(-0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $72.64 151 $10,968.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $71.01 151 $10,722.51 $10,724.83 $-246.13
(-2.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:30am ET $71.64 149 $10,674.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:15pm ET $72.60 149 $10,817.40 $10,867.87 +$143.04
(+1.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET $73.39 148 $10,861.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $72.06 148 $10,664.88 $10,671.03 $-196.84
(-1.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET $72.46 147 $10,652.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $72.49 147 $10,655.30 $10,673.97 +$2.94
(+0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET $73.75 144 $10,620.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 11:10am ET $73.14 144 $10,532.16 $10,586.13 $-87.84
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET $71.26 148 $10,546.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET $71.10 148 $10,522.80 $10,562.45 $-23.68
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:45pm ET $71.76 147 $10,548.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:35am ET $72.63 147 $10,676.61 $10,690.34 +$127.89
(+1.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $72.57 147 $10,667.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $69.51 147 $10,217.97 $10,241.25 $-449.09
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $70.02 146 $10,222.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $70.50 146 $10,293.00 $10,311.33 +$70.08
(+0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $68.97 149 $10,276.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $70.08 149 $10,441.92 $10,476.72 +$165.39
(+1.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $65.26 160 $10,441.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $64.51 160 $10,321.60 $10,357.31 $-119.41
(-1.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $68.41 151 $10,329.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $67.83 151 $10,242.33 $10,269.73 $-87.58
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $68.45 150 $10,267.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $69.08 150 $10,362.75 $10,364.98 +$95.25
(+0.9%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $69.19 149 $10,309.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:25am ET $74.79 149 $11,143.71 $11,199.38 +$834.40
(+8.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:50pm ET $76.71 145 $11,123.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 2:00pm ET $76.56 145 $11,101.20 $11,176.91 $-22.47
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
10m held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET $78.83 141 $11,115.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $78.53 141 $11,072.73 $11,134.60 $-42.31
(-0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
40m held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $78.29 142 $11,116.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $78.86 142 $11,198.12 $11,216.25 +$81.65
(+0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $77.33 145 $11,213.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:20am ET $76.44 145 $11,083.80 $11,086.48 $-129.77
(-1.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $76.57 144 $11,026.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $76.51 144 $11,017.44 $11,077.84 $-8.64
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $73.30 151 $11,068.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $73.06 151 $11,032.06 $11,041.60 $-36.24
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
30m held
26 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $76.07 145 $11,030.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 145 $11,278.10 $11,289.55 +$247.95
(+2.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
27 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $76.73 147 $11,278.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:20am ET $78.97 147 $11,608.59 $11,619.55 +$330.00
(+2.9%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,619.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,619.55
Total Return: +16.20%
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